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Solar Activity Report for 11/3/04

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  • David
    Solar activity continues to be high this evening, thanks to a couple of flare-producing sunspots. Regions 691, which is now close to rotating over the western
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 3, 2004
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      Solar activity continues to be high this evening, thanks to a couple
      of flare-producing sunspots. Regions 691, which is now close to
      rotating over the western limb of the solar disk, and region 696
      combined to produce 4 M-class flares within the last 24 hours,
      including a very respectable M-5 event. The largest sunspot region in
      view is region 693, which is easily naked-eye visible. Thusfar,
      however, it has been relatively quiet. The M-5 flare produced an
      impressive CME. While it was not squarely earth-directed, there was
      an unmistakable halo component to it, and it should be arriving here
      on or about the 6th. Additionally, solar wind gusts from the coronal
      hole I mentioned in my last report should be arriving just about any
      time now. In fact, as I look at the solar wind data, that event may
      already be starting to take place.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 123
      SFI : 136
      A index : 9
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 469.6 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 6.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.5 nPa

      IMF : 7.2 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.8 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B5

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R2 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate, but there is a fair chance
      for an isolated major flare event over the next three days from Region
      696, Region 691, or Region 693.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with possible
      active periods for the next two days (04-05 November) due to coronal
      hole effects. The CME associated with today's M5 flare is expected to
      arrive on the third day (06 November) and is expected to increase
      activity to mostly active levels with occasional periods of minor
      storm levels.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      03-Nov-2004 1826Z M1.0
      03-Nov-2004 1547Z M5.0
      03-Nov-2004 0335Z M1.6
      03-Nov-2004 0133Z M2.8
      01-Nov-2004 0322Z M1.1
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