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Solar Activity Report for 10/31/04

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  • David
    Sunspot region 691 has become very active over the last few days, firing off several strong flares, including a massive X-class flare on the 30th. The flares
    Message 1 of 1 , Oct 31, 2004
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      Sunspot region 691 has become very active over the last few days,
      firing off several strong flares, including a massive X-class flare on
      the 30th. The flares were short duration events, which usually don't
      do much in the way of CME's. However, analysis of SOHO coronagraph
      imagery show that there was some CME activity, and there appeared to
      be a halo component to them. They weren't full-halo shots, but we
      should get a glancing blow from them, probably starting on the 1st.
      The are six sunspot regions visible, and 691 is by far the most
      active. However, region 693 might be another source of significant
      flares. There is also a small coronal hole that is now in an
      earth-pointing position. That could also contribute to unsettled
      geomagnetic over the next few days.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 163
      SFI : 139
      A index : 10
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 425.9 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.7 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.0 nPa

      IMF : 5.1 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.8 nT North

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B4

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate, with a slight chance for
      major flare activity. Region 691 is the main threat for moderate or
      higher activity levels, although Region 693 might also contribute.
      There is also a slight chance for a proton event from Region 691,
      given its favorable location on the disk.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
      levels until sometime around mid-day tomorrow (01 November) when
      transient flow from the energetic solar events of 30 October are
      expected to arrive at Earth. Active conditions with some periods of
      minor storm levels are expected to follow and persist for 24-36 hours.
      Conditions are expected to subside to unsettled to active levels on
      the third day (03 November).

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      31-Oct-2004 0532Z M2.3
      31-Oct-2004 0226Z M1.1
      30-Oct-2004 1633Z M5.9
      30-Oct-2004 1146Z X1.2
      30-Oct-2004 0928Z M3.7
      30-Oct-2004 0618Z M4.2
      30-Oct-2004 0333Z M3.3
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