** Aurora Watch In Effect **
After being completely void of sunspots not long ago, the visible
surface of the sun is peppered with six sunspot regions. One of them,
region 687, has been growing rapidly and has been the source of three
nice M-class flares. It is easily naked-eye visible, and spans over
10 earth diameters end-to-end. The earth is actually in a bit of a
high speed solar wind stream as I write this, with the solar wind
speed being in the 450 range and the density also being higher than
normal. Over the next few days, we could see the arrival of the CME's
launched by the M-class flares on the 22nd and the 24th. Folks in the
higher latitudes should keep an eye out for aurora.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 178
SFI : 135
A index : 8
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 450.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 11.4 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 3.4 nPa
IMF : 10.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.9 nT South
GOES-12 Backgground X-ray Flux level : B4
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar Activity is expected to be low to moderate. M-class flares are
possible from Region 687.
Geomagnetic activuty forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a
possibility for isolated active periods on 25 and 26 October due to a
possible glancing blow from a CME observed on 22 October.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
24-Oct-2004 2028Z M2.3
22-Oct-2004 0811Z M2.1