Solar Activity Report for 10/17/04
- Here are a few interesting facts.
Sunspot Cycle 23's peak smoothed sunspot number came in at 120. That
was about 40 points lower than had been predicted.
Due to the orientation of the sun's magnetic field and the way it
swaps ends during sunspot cycle peaks, odd numbered cycles usually
cause more geomagnetic activity than even numbered ones.
The last few sunspot cycles have been getting progressively weaker.
Time will tell how that plays out, but keep in mind that there is a
strong correlation between sunspots and temperature. Take away the
sunspots for an extended period of time (thousands of years), and you
might be looking at another ice age.
The bottom of Cycle 23 will occur either in late 2006 or early 2007.
Then, Cycle 24 will begin.
Contrary to what you might think, geomagnetic activity doesn't
necessarily correspond to sunspot number. In fact, the more intense
geomagnetic actvity of any given sunspot cycle usually happens during
the declining phase of the cycle.
Anyway, on to today's report. The solar wind speed has slowed down
since the most recent coronal hole encounter. Other than the brief
G-1 geomagnetic storm, there was no other activity associated with it.
With no coronal holes in an Earth-pointing position and no sunspots
generating significant flares, things should be quiet for a few days.
There is a single sunspot region visible, that being region 682.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 51
SFI : 93
A index : 3
K index : 0
Solar wind speed : 296.3 km/sec
Solar wind density : 5.5 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.8 nPa
IMF : 1.3 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.3 nT South
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : A7
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated minor
C-class flares are possible.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated
active periods are possible on 19 October due to a weak high speed
solar wind stream.
Recent significant solar flare activity