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Solar Activity Report for 9/20/04

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Sunspot region 672 was the source of a long-duration M1.9 flare on the 19th, which hurled a partial-halo CME towards Earth.
    Message 1 of 1 , Sep 20, 2004
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Sunspot region 672 was the source of a long-duration M1.9 flare on the
      19th, which hurled a partial-halo CME towards Earth. Impact with
      Earth's magnetosphere is expected to occur sometime after nightfall on
      the 21st, and aurora are a possibility. The flare also triggered an
      S-1 solar radiation storm, which has now subsided. There is a coronal
      hole visible, but it looks to be too far north on the solar disk to
      have much of an effect. There are two sunspot regions visible on the
      solar disk, and region 672 has at least an outside chance of producing
      more M-class flares as it approaches the western limb.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 59
      SFI : 101
      A index : 11
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 394.3 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 8.6 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.1 nPa

      IMF : 7.3 nT
      IMF Orientation : 4.2 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

      Conditions for the lasr 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar Activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance
      for an isolated M-class flare from Region 672 as it rotates around the
      west limb.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with
      isolated high latitude active periods on 21 September. Unsettled to
      minor storm levels are expected on 22 and 23 September due to a CME
      associated with the M1.9 flare on 19 September.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      19-Sep-2004 1712Z M1.9
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