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  • mike@usinter.net
    The talk was about the way big air patterns move. A high pressure region moves clockwise, and a low counter. If the storm gets inbetween a low and a high, it
    Message 1 of 2 , Sep 14, 2004
      The talk was about the way big air patterns move. A high pressure
      region moves clockwise, and a low counter. If the storm gets
      inbetween a low and a high, it basically gets sucked up between them.

      Most of the models, which are junk, were looking at just that kind of
      situation too soon. Again, what they were not looking for was the
      ELECTRICAL things going on with cloud microphysics, particularly with
      a huge storm like this which is a POINT or center organized from a
      static field standpoint.

      To the west of the hurricane in the EPAC is another hurricane which
      is moving NW--Hurricane Javiar. That helps keep the whole region,
      electrically, moving NW. But the key player with Ivan is the WGOM.
      Why? Because when you have huge voltage transiants coupled from ocean
      to ionosphere, it causes water vapor to become unable to form into
      ice. And we aren't talking about pure water, but salt water. I have a
      friend I have been emailing with for years on climate debate bbs and
      she informed me from Orlando that when Frances landfell the air puke
      smelled of ocean. That's because the winds lift the saltwater from
      the surface and that means that these huge voltages are dealing with
      an ion solution that does not form ice with symmetry. See again:


      "The effects of electric field on ice crystal growth had been
      numerically discussed by Scishcheve and Kusalike6-7. They announced
      that the strength of an electric field able to change the ice lattice
      from normal ice(Ih) to cubic ice (Ic) should be at least 10 to the
      5th kV/m [fair weather voltages are about 10 to the -1 k volts per
      meter]. However, the strength of the electric field used in our
      experiments was only 1/400 of the 10 to the 5th kV/m [fair weather
      voltages would be on order of 1/1,000,000 of these voltages, whereas
      w/ tropical storm transiants above the eye, the transiant ratios
      would be similar to the experiments]. Thus, the morphological change
      of the ice in this study was not caused by the ice lattice change.
      Without the electric field, the crystal growth process could be
      considered as a process whereby the water molecules are added one by
      one to the crystal lattice. This 'adding' process has normally the
      same probability in all directions, and leads to the formation of the
      symmetric ice crystal [figure omitted]. However, when a high voltage
      field is applied, the electric field may cause different molecules in
      the DMSO solution[a weak acid--what should be noted is rain water is
      slightly acidic from the CO2 and other particles that get dissolved
      in the air--with a pH of about 5.6] to exhibit different behaviors.
      The polar water molecules/clusters may be torqued and rearranged
      under the action of the electric field and forced to joining the
      lattice in a special orientation and position.

      What I am seeing from the lighting storm link and the patterns is
      that the strongest deliniations of point stability is coming from the
      WGOM. There are large strike numbers for this time of night and this
      has literally vaporized the ULL (upper level low) over Texas and
      lifted it north. It did it in a pattern, because, again, in this
      capacitive coupling water is a powerful dielectric compared to just
      air, and a surface low roils the oceans, causes outgassing like
      opening a cold beer, and allows a coupling direct from the ionosphere
      without much impedance to that conductive ocean. Static fields form
      correspondingly. It looks like the top half of the storm may lose its
      connection to the storm over this, and the storm continues to advance
      west to the WGOM very steadily. The storm looks like it is going
      through an eyewall replacement with this severance, and I wouldn't be
      surprised to see a move WNW movement of the storm as this occurs.
      There is a ridge to the north that is slowly lifting, yes, but the
      whole storm isn't going there. It is going NW at a minimum and
      perhaps now is when it turns.

      The bottom line is this. The models are flawed right, and while they
      are grouping with a Mississippi/Alabama border landfall, my view is
      it landfalls central Lousianna and may even track west as far as the
      Texas border before running east.

      This storm is a low SOx event. Believe it or not, the danger isn't
      winds but extreme flooding.

      SOx from a volcanic eruption defined a storm like Andrew--where the
      SOx, as in the China paper, causes yet more extreme microphysics
      assymetries per the China paper.

      If it takes a more northern track the models, which are more valid as
      it loses its EMF organizing power, have the water in the air and the
      low BP essentially stalling over the SE and the word used on TWC
      was 'biblical' flooding.

      It seems like the mixture of the models and my electrical
      observations have been most accurate. So in conclusion, to the left
      or west -- probably with the strongest winds hitting N.O., and then
      moving very slowly, perhaps stopping, before moving east. The
      flooding is going to be outrageous.

      I may still be right on Texas, for sure the outer bands will hit it,
      but the eye would have to move NW over land to get there . . .
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