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Solar Activity Report for 9/14/04

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  • David
    ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** In my last report, I mentioned that an M-class flare was in progress, which I
    Message 1 of 1 , Sep 14, 2004
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      ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      In my last report, I mentioned that an M-class flare was in progress,
      which I estimated at M-5. Turns out I was pretty close, as it topped
      out at M4.8. It fired off a partial-halo CME towards Earth, which
      struck home about 24 hours ago. The result was an S-2 solar radiation
      storm, a G-1 geomagnetic storm, and aurora. Aurora were photographed
      in AK and Canada, as can be seen here :
      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_01sep04.htm . As
      of right now, the solar wind speed is still up, and the geomagnetic
      field is still active. More aurora are a possibility tonight. Then,
      there will be a brief respite for about 24 hours until another CME
      could stike the Earth's magnetosphere, this one coming from a
      long-duration M1.5 flare which occurred early on the 14th. That event
      could kick off another geomagnetic storm. The source of the activity
      is sunspot region 672, which is in an Earth-pointing position. Stay
      tuned, as more M-class flares are a possibility.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 70
      SFI : 115
      A index : 21
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 566.9 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.2 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa

      IMF : 5.0 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.2 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B4

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G1 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
      the S2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 672 is
      expected to produce C- class flares, and may produce isolated M-class
      flares.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 15
      September as the effects of the current distrurbance subside. A CME
      originating from the M1.5 flare observed today may interact with
      Earth's geomagnetic field beginning midday on 16 September, and
      lasting through 17 September. Predominantly active conditions, with
      isolated minor or major storming, is likely on 16-17 September as a
      result of this CME arrival. The greater than 10 MeV Proton levels may
      increase as well in association with a CME shock arrival.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      14-Sep-2004 0930Z M1.5
      12-Sep-2004 0056Z M4.8
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