First, the strikes went to about 16k max today over the U.S. and
there was some TS activity just north of the Mississippi delta, and
some NW of there over the Rockies. When you have a storm as huge as
this, it is going to literally cause a general DC field over the GOM
to cause diffusion of water vapor north, and that aids in a
convective event. Even a weak frontal activity is going to have some
convection and that causes strikes, and you get positive voltages
then in the ionosphere from the charge separations due to the elves
and sprites and then the strikes bringing electrons to ground. This
positive voltage feeds back on the order of the storm and certainly
provides some possible mechanism for a northwarm move, but with this
storm I just don't see it. Most of the movement is to the west in
conjunction with the movement of the ITCZ, as the warmest and hence
most conductive places on earth and therefore where these storms
track. Anyway, there are some bio markers for the Carribean why it
is causing this storm to blow up and why we had, at the warmer part
of the summer, storms like Charley and Frances where they were (prior
to the oceans being flat from fizzing out all their CO2). Check out
these two links:
Some large scale bio clues/examples of the electrical conductivity
state of the W. Carribean.
Note the problem with the models--how the cone of probability has
Caymon islands are STILL in the red. These poor people got racked.
Here is the latest IR shots.
From these shots I want to point out mesovortices behaviors in the
large eye of the hurricane. You have a very strong positive voltage
to ground and it literally burns a hole in the clouds, as ice cannot
readily form and the vapor diffuses nearby. But also with such huge
transiants even water forming from vapor becomes difficult, and so
there are varying levels of within the cirrus disk and then within
the eye--mesovortices complexities. Plus the negative voltages
can 'spin' as a group inside the eye and cause clouds to form
explosively on one half of the eye (or other subpart) and then have
the winds blow that aspect around and around the eye. The last few
frames on these IR pictures you can see the concept to opposites
attract in the static electrical sense combined with the dielectric
property of water over air.
From there you can start to visualize some of the things going on,
and that leads me to continue to observe a general westward direction
and nothing I can see would stop that, and in fact there are clues we
could see a Mitch SW wobble.
This link is limited in recent frames due to an eclipse of the Goes
sat. Each eclipse season spans a 48-day period, symmetric around the
equinox and the sun occultation lasts for a maximum of 72 minutes/day
during the equinox. Each GOES spacecraft utilizes a solar array that
converts sunlight into electricity in order to power the satellite.
Each day during the eclipse season the sun is blocked by the Earth
and sunlight is not available to the GOES solar array. Therefore, the
energy needed to power the instruments is not available and the
instruments are powered off. There is typically a 03 hour outage of
imagery each day as GOES progresses through eclipse season. The
maximum outage of 3 hours will occur at or near the equinox. So
that's why this link has a gap if you run the numbers before jpg back
Clearly running NW now--right straight over water between Cuba and
It is now NOT going west for the first time.
Several things to report to you, Jay, from my perspective.
As I discussed with you as this thing was tracking west on Friday, I
suspected that the SOI was rising and indeed it was until Saturday,
when it has taken a substantial dive.
6-Sep-2004 1015.56 1012.55 4.10 -7.39 -10.03
7-Sep-2004 1014.74 1012.40 0.10 -7.18 -9.96
8-Sep-2004 1014.63 1013.15 -4.90 -7.13 -10.00
9-Sep-2004 1015.21 1013.20 -1.80 -6.89 -10.09
10-Sep-2004 1016.15 1013.00 4.90 -6.34 -10.05
11-Sep-2004 1016.83 1013.30 7.10 -5.12 -9.79
12-Sep-2004 1016.20 1014.90 -6.00 -3.78 -9.71
13-Sep-2004 1015.98 1015.95 -13.60 -3.13 -9.66
Javiar is now a minimal hurricane. ITS PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT. IMHO, that MOVEMENT is EXTREMELY
significant--it matches Ivan.
The dropping SOI matches a storm less connected to the ITCZ. The
dropping SOI also matches a change from a pin hole eye to a cyclops.
There is an electrical phenomenon called back EMF. Pay attention to
this detail: there is a difference between something being
conductive and a current powering a conductive circuit. Back EMF is
demonstrated with an experient where you have an induction coil and
you run a low powered DC current through that coil to a bulb and then
back to your battery. The current can be too small to light the
bulb, but if you let go of one of the power leads, the coil reacts to
the lack of power and for an instant, back EMF powers the light to
flash. IMHO, that is much like what you are seeing with the
increase up to cat 5 as the SOI ran tending negative (El Nino wind),
dropping 20 units. The other interesting power source was, as I
mentioned today, the strikes just north of the Mississippi delta
peaked out at about 15-6 k today, which is very low. Presently,
there only 1,000 strikes in the reporting period and they are in the
North Rockies, over the hydrate fields in the Carolinas, and just at
the delta of the Mississippi. A few strikes off the Texas coast have
ceased over an hour ago.
Hurricane hunters in the eye a couple hours ago reported unusual
The eye itself appears to be moving NORTHWEST, BUT
the lower part of the cyclops eye continues on a more west track.
And the intense IR reading continues to be south of the storm. Why?
Because there are electrical movements in the air--what couples
where, BUT there are CONDUCTIVITY changes on the ocean surface, and
they are not always the same. Since this storm has moved west to the
west of the storm winds roil the oceans in a circle. Therefore,
with a storm as large as this, there is a roiling that extends west
all the way to the ocean already. So there is a momentum to the
storm going west that changes in the SOI, changes in unusual strikes
to the inner eye, changes in conductivity, are going to have an
extremely difficult time dealing with the extreme conductivity of
these warm, CO2 filled waters of the W. Carribean.