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Ivan

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  • mike@usinter.net
    First, the strikes went to about 16k max today over the U.S. and there was some TS activity just north of the Mississippi delta, and some NW of there over the
    Message 1 of 2 , Sep 13 12:56 AM
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      First, the strikes went to about 16k max today over the U.S. and
      there was some TS activity just north of the Mississippi delta, and
      some NW of there over the Rockies. When you have a storm as huge as
      this, it is going to literally cause a general DC field over the GOM
      to cause diffusion of water vapor north, and that aids in a
      convective event. Even a weak frontal activity is going to have some
      convection and that causes strikes, and you get positive voltages
      then in the ionosphere from the charge separations due to the elves
      and sprites and then the strikes bringing electrons to ground. This
      positive voltage feeds back on the order of the storm and certainly
      provides some possible mechanism for a northwarm move, but with this
      storm I just don't see it. Most of the movement is to the west in
      conjunction with the movement of the ITCZ, as the warmest and hence
      most conductive places on earth and therefore where these storms
      track. Anyway, there are some bio markers for the Carribean why it
      is causing this storm to blow up and why we had, at the warmer part
      of the summer, storms like Charley and Frances where they were (prior
      to the oceans being flat from fizzing out all their CO2). Check out
      these two links:

      Some large scale bio clues/examples of the electrical conductivity
      state of the W. Carribean.

      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php
      3?img_id=12404

      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php
      3?img_id=12170

      Note the problem with the models--how the cone of probability has
      been busted.

      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IVAN_graphics.shtml

      Caymon islands are STILL in the red. These poor people got racked.

      http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/cayman.shtml

      Here is the latest IR shots.


      http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg


      From these shots I want to point out mesovortices behaviors in the
      large eye of the hurricane. You have a very strong positive voltage
      to ground and it literally burns a hole in the clouds, as ice cannot
      readily form and the vapor diffuses nearby. But also with such huge
      transiants even water forming from vapor becomes difficult, and so
      there are varying levels of within the cirrus disk and then within
      the eye--mesovortices complexities. Plus the negative voltages
      can 'spin' as a group inside the eye and cause clouds to form
      explosively on one half of the eye (or other subpart) and then have
      the winds blow that aspect around and around the eye. The last few
      frames on these IR pictures you can see the concept to opposites
      attract in the static electrical sense combined with the dielectric
      property of water over air.

      From there you can start to visualize some of the things going on,
      and that leads me to continue to observe a general westward direction
      and nothing I can see would stop that, and in fact there are clues we
      could see a Mitch SW wobble.

      This link is limited in recent frames due to an eclipse of the Goes
      sat. Each eclipse season spans a 48-day period, symmetric around the
      equinox and the sun occultation lasts for a maximum of 72 minutes/day
      during the equinox. Each GOES spacecraft utilizes a solar array that
      converts sunlight into electricity in order to power the satellite.
      Each day during the eclipse season the sun is blocked by the Earth
      and sunlight is not available to the GOES solar array. Therefore, the
      energy needed to power the instruments is not available and the
      instruments are powered off. There is typically a 0–3 hour outage of
      imagery each day as GOES progresses through eclipse season. The
      maximum outage of 3 hours will occur at or near the equinox. So
      that's why this link has a gap if you run the numbers before jpg back
      to 10.

      http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

      Clearly running NW now--right straight over water between Cuba and
      Mexico.


      It is now NOT going west for the first time.

      Several things to report to you, Jay, from my perspective.


      As I discussed with you as this thing was tracking west on Friday, I
      suspected that the SOI was rising and indeed it was until Saturday,
      when it has taken a substantial dive.

      6-Sep-2004 1015.56 1012.55 4.10 -7.39 -10.03
      7-Sep-2004 1014.74 1012.40 0.10 -7.18 -9.96
      8-Sep-2004 1014.63 1013.15 -4.90 -7.13 -10.00
      9-Sep-2004 1015.21 1013.20 -1.80 -6.89 -10.09
      10-Sep-2004 1016.15 1013.00 4.90 -6.34 -10.05
      11-Sep-2004 1016.83 1013.30 7.10 -5.12 -9.79
      12-Sep-2004 1016.20 1014.90 -6.00 -3.78 -9.71
      13-Sep-2004 1015.98 1015.95 -13.60 -3.13 -9.66

      http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2004/index.html

      Javiar is now a minimal hurricane. ITS PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
      NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT. IMHO, that MOVEMENT is EXTREMELY
      significant--it matches Ivan.

      The dropping SOI matches a storm less connected to the ITCZ. The
      dropping SOI also matches a change from a pin hole eye to a cyclops.

      There is an electrical phenomenon called back EMF. Pay attention to
      this detail: there is a difference between something being
      conductive and a current powering a conductive circuit. Back EMF is
      demonstrated with an experient where you have an induction coil and
      you run a low powered DC current through that coil to a bulb and then
      back to your battery. The current can be too small to light the
      bulb, but if you let go of one of the power leads, the coil reacts to
      the lack of power and for an instant, back EMF powers the light to
      flash. IMHO, that is much like what you are seeing with the
      increase up to cat 5 as the SOI ran tending negative (El Nino wind),
      dropping 20 units. The other interesting power source was, as I
      mentioned today, the strikes just north of the Mississippi delta
      peaked out at about 15-6 k today, which is very low. Presently,
      there only 1,000 strikes in the reporting period and they are in the
      North Rockies, over the hydrate fields in the Carolinas, and just at
      the delta of the Mississippi. A few strikes off the Texas coast have
      ceased over an hour ago.

      Hurricane hunters in the eye a couple hours ago reported unusual
      strike activity.

      The eye itself appears to be moving NORTHWEST, BUT

      the lower part of the cyclops eye continues on a more west track.
      And the intense IR reading continues to be south of the storm. Why?

      Because there are electrical movements in the air--what couples
      where, BUT there are CONDUCTIVITY changes on the ocean surface, and
      they are not always the same. Since this storm has moved west to the
      west of the storm winds roil the oceans in a circle. Therefore,
      with a storm as large as this, there is a roiling that extends west
      all the way to the ocean already. So there is a momentum to the
      storm going west that changes in the SOI, changes in unusual strikes
      to the inner eye, changes in conductivity, are going to have an
      extremely difficult time dealing with the extreme conductivity of
      these warm, CO2 filled waters of the W. Carribean.
    • mike@usinter.net
      The talk was about the way big air patterns move. A high pressure region moves clockwise, and a low counter. If the storm gets inbetween a low and a high, it
      Message 2 of 2 , Sep 14 11:49 PM
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        The talk was about the way big air patterns move. A high pressure
        region moves clockwise, and a low counter. If the storm gets
        inbetween a low and a high, it basically gets sucked up between them.

        Most of the models, which are junk, were looking at just that kind of
        situation too soon. Again, what they were not looking for was the
        ELECTRICAL things going on with cloud microphysics, particularly with
        a huge storm like this which is a POINT or center organized from a
        static field standpoint.

        To the west of the hurricane in the EPAC is another hurricane which
        is moving NW--Hurricane Javiar. That helps keep the whole region,
        electrically, moving NW. But the key player with Ivan is the WGOM.
        Why? Because when you have huge voltage transiants coupled from ocean
        to ionosphere, it causes water vapor to become unable to form into
        ice. And we aren't talking about pure water, but salt water. I have a
        friend I have been emailing with for years on climate debate bbs and
        she informed me from Orlando that when Frances landfell the air puke
        smelled of ocean. That's because the winds lift the saltwater from
        the surface and that means that these huge voltages are dealing with
        an ion solution that does not form ice with symmetry. See again:



        http://www.ichmt.org/abstracts/Vim-01/abstracts/04-01.pdf


        "The effects of electric field on ice crystal growth had been
        numerically discussed by Scishcheve and Kusalike6-7. They announced
        that the strength of an electric field able to change the ice lattice
        from normal ice(Ih) to cubic ice (Ic) should be at least 10 to the
        5th kV/m [fair weather voltages are about 10 to the -1 k volts per
        meter]. However, the strength of the electric field used in our
        experiments was only 1/400 of the 10 to the 5th kV/m [fair weather
        voltages would be on order of 1/1,000,000 of these voltages, whereas
        w/ tropical storm transiants above the eye, the transiant ratios
        would be similar to the experiments]. Thus, the morphological change
        of the ice in this study was not caused by the ice lattice change.
        Without the electric field, the crystal growth process could be
        considered as a process whereby the water molecules are added one by
        one to the crystal lattice. This 'adding' process has normally the
        same probability in all directions, and leads to the formation of the
        symmetric ice crystal [figure omitted]. However, when a high voltage
        field is applied, the electric field may cause different molecules in
        the DMSO solution[a weak acid--what should be noted is rain water is
        slightly acidic from the CO2 and other particles that get dissolved
        in the air--with a pH of about 5.6] to exhibit different behaviors.
        The polar water molecules/clusters may be torqued and rearranged
        under the action of the electric field and forced to joining the
        lattice in a special orientation and position.


        What I am seeing from the lighting storm link and the patterns is
        that the strongest deliniations of point stability is coming from the
        WGOM. There are large strike numbers for this time of night and this
        has literally vaporized the ULL (upper level low) over Texas and
        lifted it north. It did it in a pattern, because, again, in this
        capacitive coupling water is a powerful dielectric compared to just
        air, and a surface low roils the oceans, causes outgassing like
        opening a cold beer, and allows a coupling direct from the ionosphere
        without much impedance to that conductive ocean. Static fields form
        correspondingly. It looks like the top half of the storm may lose its
        connection to the storm over this, and the storm continues to advance
        west to the WGOM very steadily. The storm looks like it is going
        through an eyewall replacement with this severance, and I wouldn't be
        surprised to see a move WNW movement of the storm as this occurs.
        There is a ridge to the north that is slowly lifting, yes, but the
        whole storm isn't going there. It is going NW at a minimum and
        perhaps now is when it turns.

        The bottom line is this. The models are flawed right, and while they
        are grouping with a Mississippi/Alabama border landfall, my view is
        it landfalls central Lousianna and may even track west as far as the
        Texas border before running east.

        This storm is a low SOx event. Believe it or not, the danger isn't
        winds but extreme flooding.

        SOx from a volcanic eruption defined a storm like Andrew--where the
        SOx, as in the China paper, causes yet more extreme microphysics
        assymetries per the China paper.

        If it takes a more northern track the models, which are more valid as
        it loses its EMF organizing power, have the water in the air and the
        low BP essentially stalling over the SE and the word used on TWC
        was 'biblical' flooding.

        It seems like the mixture of the models and my electrical
        observations have been most accurate. So in conclusion, to the left
        or west -- probably with the strongest winds hitting N.O., and then
        moving very slowly, perhaps stopping, before moving east. The
        flooding is going to be outrageous.

        I may still be right on Texas, for sure the outer bands will hit it,
        but the eye would have to move NW over land to get there . . .
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