- First, the strikes went to about 16k max today over the U.S. and
there was some TS activity just north of the Mississippi delta, and
some NW of there over the Rockies. When you have a storm as huge as
this, it is going to literally cause a general DC field over the GOM
to cause diffusion of water vapor north, and that aids in a
convective event. Even a weak frontal activity is going to have some
convection and that causes strikes, and you get positive voltages
then in the ionosphere from the charge separations due to the elves
and sprites and then the strikes bringing electrons to ground. This
positive voltage feeds back on the order of the storm and certainly
provides some possible mechanism for a northwarm move, but with this
storm I just don't see it. Most of the movement is to the west in
conjunction with the movement of the ITCZ, as the warmest and hence
most conductive places on earth and therefore where these storms
track. Anyway, there are some bio markers for the Carribean why it
is causing this storm to blow up and why we had, at the warmer part
of the summer, storms like Charley and Frances where they were (prior
to the oceans being flat from fizzing out all their CO2). Check out
these two links:
Some large scale bio clues/examples of the electrical conductivity
state of the W. Carribean.
Note the problem with the models--how the cone of probability has
Caymon islands are STILL in the red. These poor people got racked.
Here is the latest IR shots.
From these shots I want to point out mesovortices behaviors in the
large eye of the hurricane. You have a very strong positive voltage
to ground and it literally burns a hole in the clouds, as ice cannot
readily form and the vapor diffuses nearby. But also with such huge
transiants even water forming from vapor becomes difficult, and so
there are varying levels of within the cirrus disk and then within
the eye--mesovortices complexities. Plus the negative voltages
can 'spin' as a group inside the eye and cause clouds to form
explosively on one half of the eye (or other subpart) and then have
the winds blow that aspect around and around the eye. The last few
frames on these IR pictures you can see the concept to opposites
attract in the static electrical sense combined with the dielectric
property of water over air.
From there you can start to visualize some of the things going on,
and that leads me to continue to observe a general westward direction
and nothing I can see would stop that, and in fact there are clues we
could see a Mitch SW wobble.
This link is limited in recent frames due to an eclipse of the Goes
sat. Each eclipse season spans a 48-day period, symmetric around the
equinox and the sun occultation lasts for a maximum of 72 minutes/day
during the equinox. Each GOES spacecraft utilizes a solar array that
converts sunlight into electricity in order to power the satellite.
Each day during the eclipse season the sun is blocked by the Earth
and sunlight is not available to the GOES solar array. Therefore, the
energy needed to power the instruments is not available and the
instruments are powered off. There is typically a 03 hour outage of
imagery each day as GOES progresses through eclipse season. The
maximum outage of 3 hours will occur at or near the equinox. So
that's why this link has a gap if you run the numbers before jpg back
Clearly running NW now--right straight over water between Cuba and
It is now NOT going west for the first time.
Several things to report to you, Jay, from my perspective.
As I discussed with you as this thing was tracking west on Friday, I
suspected that the SOI was rising and indeed it was until Saturday,
when it has taken a substantial dive.
6-Sep-2004 1015.56 1012.55 4.10 -7.39 -10.03
7-Sep-2004 1014.74 1012.40 0.10 -7.18 -9.96
8-Sep-2004 1014.63 1013.15 -4.90 -7.13 -10.00
9-Sep-2004 1015.21 1013.20 -1.80 -6.89 -10.09
10-Sep-2004 1016.15 1013.00 4.90 -6.34 -10.05
11-Sep-2004 1016.83 1013.30 7.10 -5.12 -9.79
12-Sep-2004 1016.20 1014.90 -6.00 -3.78 -9.71
13-Sep-2004 1015.98 1015.95 -13.60 -3.13 -9.66
Javiar is now a minimal hurricane. ITS PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT. IMHO, that MOVEMENT is EXTREMELY
significant--it matches Ivan.
The dropping SOI matches a storm less connected to the ITCZ. The
dropping SOI also matches a change from a pin hole eye to a cyclops.
There is an electrical phenomenon called back EMF. Pay attention to
this detail: there is a difference between something being
conductive and a current powering a conductive circuit. Back EMF is
demonstrated with an experient where you have an induction coil and
you run a low powered DC current through that coil to a bulb and then
back to your battery. The current can be too small to light the
bulb, but if you let go of one of the power leads, the coil reacts to
the lack of power and for an instant, back EMF powers the light to
flash. IMHO, that is much like what you are seeing with the
increase up to cat 5 as the SOI ran tending negative (El Nino wind),
dropping 20 units. The other interesting power source was, as I
mentioned today, the strikes just north of the Mississippi delta
peaked out at about 15-6 k today, which is very low. Presently,
there only 1,000 strikes in the reporting period and they are in the
North Rockies, over the hydrate fields in the Carolinas, and just at
the delta of the Mississippi. A few strikes off the Texas coast have
ceased over an hour ago.
Hurricane hunters in the eye a couple hours ago reported unusual
The eye itself appears to be moving NORTHWEST, BUT
the lower part of the cyclops eye continues on a more west track.
And the intense IR reading continues to be south of the storm. Why?
Because there are electrical movements in the air--what couples
where, BUT there are CONDUCTIVITY changes on the ocean surface, and
they are not always the same. Since this storm has moved west to the
west of the storm winds roil the oceans in a circle. Therefore,
with a storm as large as this, there is a roiling that extends west
all the way to the ocean already. So there is a momentum to the
storm going west that changes in the SOI, changes in unusual strikes
to the inner eye, changes in conductivity, are going to have an
extremely difficult time dealing with the extreme conductivity of
these warm, CO2 filled waters of the W. Carribean.
- The talk was about the way big air patterns move. A high pressure
region moves clockwise, and a low counter. If the storm gets
inbetween a low and a high, it basically gets sucked up between them.
Most of the models, which are junk, were looking at just that kind of
situation too soon. Again, what they were not looking for was the
ELECTRICAL things going on with cloud microphysics, particularly with
a huge storm like this which is a POINT or center organized from a
static field standpoint.
To the west of the hurricane in the EPAC is another hurricane which
is moving NW--Hurricane Javiar. That helps keep the whole region,
electrically, moving NW. But the key player with Ivan is the WGOM.
Why? Because when you have huge voltage transiants coupled from ocean
to ionosphere, it causes water vapor to become unable to form into
ice. And we aren't talking about pure water, but salt water. I have a
friend I have been emailing with for years on climate debate bbs and
she informed me from Orlando that when Frances landfell the air puke
smelled of ocean. That's because the winds lift the saltwater from
the surface and that means that these huge voltages are dealing with
an ion solution that does not form ice with symmetry. See again:
"The effects of electric field on ice crystal growth had been
numerically discussed by Scishcheve and Kusalike6-7. They announced
that the strength of an electric field able to change the ice lattice
from normal ice(Ih) to cubic ice (Ic) should be at least 10 to the
5th kV/m [fair weather voltages are about 10 to the -1 k volts per
meter]. However, the strength of the electric field used in our
experiments was only 1/400 of the 10 to the 5th kV/m [fair weather
voltages would be on order of 1/1,000,000 of these voltages, whereas
w/ tropical storm transiants above the eye, the transiant ratios
would be similar to the experiments]. Thus, the morphological change
of the ice in this study was not caused by the ice lattice change.
Without the electric field, the crystal growth process could be
considered as a process whereby the water molecules are added one by
one to the crystal lattice. This 'adding' process has normally the
same probability in all directions, and leads to the formation of the
symmetric ice crystal [figure omitted]. However, when a high voltage
field is applied, the electric field may cause different molecules in
the DMSO solution[a weak acid--what should be noted is rain water is
slightly acidic from the CO2 and other particles that get dissolved
in the air--with a pH of about 5.6] to exhibit different behaviors.
The polar water molecules/clusters may be torqued and rearranged
under the action of the electric field and forced to joining the
lattice in a special orientation and position.
What I am seeing from the lighting storm link and the patterns is
that the strongest deliniations of point stability is coming from the
WGOM. There are large strike numbers for this time of night and this
has literally vaporized the ULL (upper level low) over Texas and
lifted it north. It did it in a pattern, because, again, in this
capacitive coupling water is a powerful dielectric compared to just
air, and a surface low roils the oceans, causes outgassing like
opening a cold beer, and allows a coupling direct from the ionosphere
without much impedance to that conductive ocean. Static fields form
correspondingly. It looks like the top half of the storm may lose its
connection to the storm over this, and the storm continues to advance
west to the WGOM very steadily. The storm looks like it is going
through an eyewall replacement with this severance, and I wouldn't be
surprised to see a move WNW movement of the storm as this occurs.
There is a ridge to the north that is slowly lifting, yes, but the
whole storm isn't going there. It is going NW at a minimum and
perhaps now is when it turns.
The bottom line is this. The models are flawed right, and while they
are grouping with a Mississippi/Alabama border landfall, my view is
it landfalls central Lousianna and may even track west as far as the
Texas border before running east.
This storm is a low SOx event. Believe it or not, the danger isn't
winds but extreme flooding.
SOx from a volcanic eruption defined a storm like Andrew--where the
SOx, as in the China paper, causes yet more extreme microphysics
assymetries per the China paper.
If it takes a more northern track the models, which are more valid as
it loses its EMF organizing power, have the water in the air and the
low BP essentially stalling over the SE and the word used on TWC
was 'biblical' flooding.
It seems like the mixture of the models and my electrical
observations have been most accurate. So in conclusion, to the left
or west -- probably with the strongest winds hitting N.O., and then
moving very slowly, perhaps stopping, before moving east. The
flooding is going to be outrageous.
I may still be right on Texas, for sure the outer bands will hit it,
but the eye would have to move NW over land to get there . . .