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Solar Activity Report for 08/19/04

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  • David
    Sunspot region 656 has rotated over the western limb of the solar disk, but it darn sure didn t go quietly, firing off a X1.8 flare plus a couple of solid
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 19, 2004
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      Sunspot region 656 has rotated over the western limb of the solar
      disk, but it darn sure didn't go quietly, firing off a X1.8 flare plus
      a couple of solid M-class ones before making it's exit. With 656 out
      of the way, the background X-ray flux is now dropping rather rapidly.
      Sunspot region 661 is in an Earth-pointing position, and has an
      outside chance of generating an M-class flare. So far, it has been
      quiet. With no coronal holes to speak of in view, and barring an
      unexpected outburst from 661, things should be quiet for the next few
      days.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 60
      SFI : 121
      A index : 5
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 371.5 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 2.7 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.8 nPa

      IMF : 9.0 nT
      IMF Orientation : 7.1 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B9

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Lingering flare
      activity from Region 656 is still possible for another day. Region 661
      is capable of producing isolated M-class flares.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the
      next three days, with isolated active conditions possible on 20 August.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      19-Aug-2004 1351Z M2.1
      19-Aug-2004 0701Z M3.0
      18-Aug-2004 1740Z X1.8
      17-Aug-2004 2228Z M1.3
      17-Aug-2004 2121Z M1.8
      17-Aug-2004 1937Z M2.4
      17-Aug-2004 0506Z M1.1
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