Solar Activity Report for 08/19/04
- Sunspot region 656 has rotated over the western limb of the solar
disk, but it darn sure didn't go quietly, firing off a X1.8 flare plus
a couple of solid M-class ones before making it's exit. With 656 out
of the way, the background X-ray flux is now dropping rather rapidly.
Sunspot region 661 is in an Earth-pointing position, and has an
outside chance of generating an M-class flare. So far, it has been
quiet. With no coronal holes to speak of in view, and barring an
unexpected outburst from 661, things should be quiet for the next few
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 60
SFI : 121
A index : 5
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 371.5 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.8 nPa
IMF : 9.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 7.1 nT South
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B9
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Lingering flare
activity from Region 656 is still possible for another day. Region 661
is capable of producing isolated M-class flares.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the
next three days, with isolated active conditions possible on 20 August.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
19-Aug-2004 1351Z M2.1
19-Aug-2004 0701Z M3.0
18-Aug-2004 1740Z X1.8
17-Aug-2004 2228Z M1.3
17-Aug-2004 2121Z M1.8
17-Aug-2004 1937Z M2.4
17-Aug-2004 0506Z M1.1