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Solar Activity Report for 8/16/04

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  • David
    Sunspot region 656 continues to be very active as it approaches the western limb of the solar disk. It is a very large sunspot, and is easily naked-eye
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 16, 2004
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      Sunspot region 656 continues to be very active as it approaches the
      western limb of the solar disk. It is a very large sunspot, and is
      easily naked-eye visible. It has fired off a steady string of M-class
      flares, some of them on the high end of M, and even an X1.0 event just
      to make it interesting. Curiously, the CME activity associated with
      the flares has been pretty minor. Why? The flares have all been of
      relatively short duration. Long-duration flares, even minor ones, are
      more likely to kick off a CME than a more powerful but short duration
      flare. There have been some hints of faint CME activity on the SOHO
      coronagraph images, and the official forecast mentions the possibility
      of some isolated active periods when the CME's strike home over the
      next few days. After 656 rotates out of view, expect the solar
      activity level to drop off rather rapidly.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 68
      SFI : 134
      A index : 7
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 318.7 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 0.8 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.1 nPa

      IMF : 8.3 nT
      IMF Orientation : 6.6 nT North

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B5

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R2 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels through 17
      and 18 August. Activity should begin to diminish on 19 August as
      Region 656 transits the western solar limb.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
      A slight chance for isolated active conditions throughout the period
      exists due to the weak CME activity seen during the past several days.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      16-Aug-2004 2244Z M1.1
      16-Aug-2004 0347Z M1.1
      15-Aug-2004 1845Z M1.2
      15-Aug-2004 1241Z M9.4
      15-Aug-2004 1132Z M2.6
      15-Aug-2004 0600Z M1.2
      15-Aug-2004 0506Z M1.2
      14-Aug-2004 2016Z M1.3
      14-Aug-2004 1818Z M1.3
      14-Aug-2004 1343Z M5.6
      14-Aug-2004 1007Z M3.2
      14-Aug-2004 0756Z M2.3
      14-Aug-2004 0544Z M7.4
      14-Aug-2004 0414Z M2.4
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