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Solar Activity Report for 8/13/03

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  • David
    The sunspot region formerly known as 649, now known as 656, has awakened in a big way after a somewhat lackluster entrance. It has produced seven significant
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 13, 2004
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      The sunspot region formerly known as 649, now known as 656, has
      awakened in a big way after a somewhat lackluster entrance. It has
      produced seven significant flares within the last 48 hours, including
      a massive X1.0 event. So far, however, all of the flares have been of
      relatively short duration, and none appear to have produced anything
      in the way of a CME. There is a faint CME on the way that was fired
      off on the 10th by a C-class flare. It looked to be of the
      partial-halo variety, and was slow-moving. It most likely won't have
      a major effect, but some activity is possible on the 14th. Meanwhile,
      old sunspot region 652 has rotated into view, and now carries the
      designation of 661. So far, it has been quiet. Look for continued
      activity out of region 656.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 160
      SFI : 149
      A index : 8
      K index : 1

      Solar wind speed : 388.8 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 6.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa

      IMF : 5.6 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.1 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B6

      Forecast for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R3 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R2 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region
      656 remains very capable of producing further isolated major flare
      activity.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels
      on 14 August with the anticipated arrival of a CME from the activity
      that was observed late on 10 August. Isolated active periods may be
      possible on day two (15 August) at higher latitudes due to lingering
      effects from the expected shock. A return to predominantly quiet
      conditions is expected for day three in lieu of further imagery from
      SOHO/LASCO.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      14-Aug-2004 0414Z M2.4
      13-Aug-2004 2350Z M2.8
      13-Aug-2004 2343Z M3.0
      13-Aug-2004 1812Z X1.0
      13-Aug-2004 1209Z M1.1
      13-Aug-2004 0729Z M1.2
      12-Aug-2004 0505Z M1.2
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