Solar Activity Report for 8/10/04
- The best way to describe conditions of the last couple of days would
be unsettled. The solar wind speed is up into the high 500's due to
the effects of a somewhat diffuse coronal hole. However, no
geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed. Of perhaps more
interest is old sunspot region 649, which is now in full view. When
it first appeared a few days ago, it looked to have lost much of it's
former intensity. While it hasn't produced anything significant yet,
it is growing in size, and is now naked-eye visible. BTW, region 649
has been redesignated as 656. Sunspot regions always get a new number
for every appearance they make. Region 656 now appears to have the
magnetic complexity for generating a significant flare. If you
remember, sunspot region 652 was close on 649's heels last time
around, and region 652 was the source of numerous M-class flares.
Region 652 should be coming into view soon, and it will be very
interesting to see what shape it is in.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 93
SFI : 121
A index : 18
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 565.6 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.9 nPa
IMF : 7.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.3 nT South'
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B3
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a fair
chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 656. There may be an
increase in background and activity levels on 12 August with the
return of old Region 652 (N08, L=348) which produced numerous M-class
events on its previous disk transit.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with
occasional active periods for the next three days (11-13 August).
Recent significant solar flare activity :