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Our discussion is a several years ahead of the mainstream's

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  • mike@usinter.net
    is a comment I have made here before. But sometimes I hear voices close to what we have been talking about. Over at TWC tropics BB several great discussions
    Message 1 of 1 , Aug 10, 2004
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      is a comment I have made here before. But sometimes I hear voices
      close to what we have been talking about. Over at TWC tropics BB
      several great discussions going on as two tropical storms form that
      will impact Gulf of Mexico weather in the next few days.

      What will we call these storms?

      Bonnie and Charlie True worked at the NHC/NHEML during the 1970's -
      Bonnie was a Secretary at the NHEML (current HRD), and Charlie was a
      draftsman with both the NHC and NHEML. The late John Hope from TWC
      worked with them both.

      During the early 1980's (after their retirement from government
      service) their names were submitted to the WMO for consideration as
      cyclone names in the Atlantic basin, and have been part of the
      rotation ever since.


      Jim Hughes also reports at a TWC tropics bb:

      "LASCO images show a backside coronal mass ejection (CME) occured
      late on the 6th. I am not 100% sure of course but this event most
      likely originated from old Region 652. This large and magnetically
      complexed sunspot region rotated out of view about a week ago in the
      solar northern hemisphere. Some of you may have heard about the
      spectacular showing of the aurora around the world on July 27th. A
      CME from this region was responsible for that event. In two earlier
      posts of mine this week , "Solar influence upon tropical development"
      and "TD3 will develop when ..." I spoke about the CME influence upon
      both tropical development and it's enhancement. In the latter post I
      mentioned that I had wanted to see an event orginate from the
      southern hemisphere. That was a true statement but this backsided
      CME, most of which showed up off of the sun's western limb, seems to
      have taken place before a recent directional change in the
      interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) occured. So a northern event
      would have been more influential for tropical development late on the
      6th. I have found that certain hemispheric events seem to have more
      of an influence upon tropical development depending upon the
      direction of the IMF at that time. I am estimating that the effects
      from this event should be centered around 09/0600z. Many people
      should know that the NHC hardly ever upgrades a tropical wave to a
      depression at this time unless it is close to home. So I would not
      expect it to be classified one at this exact moment. Although I do
      expect things to get very interesting by late tomorrow night EDT. I
      also have a fair amount of confidence in this forecast because of my
      intitial forecast that I had originally made on July 19th. This
      forecast was sent out to several indivduals within the meteorological
      field. I forecasted tropical development around August 9th. (8th-
      10th). I would love to see some other possible solar influences pick
      up. More later ....on them and their possible influences. "

      . . .

      This [event on July 19th] was not a flare it was a CME. These is a
      difference. There was probably a flare associated with it but it
      could have even been an disappearing solar filament (DSF). I did not
      specifically forecast flaring around the 9th on July 19th. I
      forecasted tropical development centered around the 9th. I thought
      the chances of increased CME activity would be higher around the 9th.
      Solar activity is cyclical and I am not just talking about the
      sunspot cycle. The solar magnetic field waxes and wanes and this has
      an effect upon a lot of different solar phenomenon. Most weather-
      climate enthusiasts would be surprised at some of the mounting
      evidence being gathered about the sun's relationship with our
      weather. I am referring to things like the El Nino and other

      . . .

      Then Steve MacDonald, an expert on the luner influences on tropical
      storms, and a member of this Methane Hydrate Club/Group, and a great
      scientist and mathematician, wrote to him:

      "The earth is small relative to the Earth/Sun distance so, that in
      order for CME to have any major effect on earth weather it has to be
      massive or there must be an alignment at an appropriate angle to
      establish jetting The alignment with Venus is not until the 11th and
      there is almost 10 degrees of separation in latitude and the earth
      intercept isn't in the Atlantic."

      Jim Hughes responded:

      "The connection that I have seen over the years has absolutely
      nothing to do with jetting. I am well aware of what criteria are
      needed for a CME impact. ie; limb location, full halo, or partial
      etc.. I have been space weather forecaster for years with a retired
      space weather-meteoroglogist for the USAF at WWOL's own space weather
      forum. The birth of our twins some fours years ago drastically
      curtailed my ability to do it all the time though. I am not to sure
      about the exact established connection nor have I ever said that I
      knew what it was to anybody. I have put forth some possible theories.
      We assume we completely understand the continual interaction of the
      IMF and the earth's own electrical field. I am not to sure about
      this. As far as Venus goes I am unsure of your point. If you are up
      on planetary locations, longtiudes latitudes etc... you may have
      heard about Dr Theodor Landscheidt's research on many things. He
      unfortunately passed away this past May and his research studies will
      be deeply missed. I corresponded with Theodor on a few occasions over
      the years through e-mails and I also minorly participated in some
      open forum discussions a few years back. He and I were basically
      going down the same path but we were like oil and water and we did
      not mix to well. He thought that I could not help him in any way and
      that was one of the problems. He was an extremely gifted indivdual
      but he was also stubborn. He started to find correlations (Which he
      spoke about openly about at that time.) in early 1999 that I had
      spoken about in open on line chats in the old TWC forum on Compuserve
      back in 1996. This was a Steamboat Springs summit in which TWC
      meteorologists participated and online guests like Ants Leetma were
      present. I openly talked about the extreme flaring in June 1991 and
      the strong stanford mean magnetic field numbers and their possible
      relationship to the ENSO back then as well as the eruption of Mount
      Pinatubo. Many people disregarded this of course but if you read up
      Dr Landscheidt's research you may be surprised. Unfortunately a
      proprietor of a website also died suddenly this past year and it was
      a great place to access all of Theordor's research discussions. Many
      are still online though. I may post some URL's later."

      . . .

      "The x-ray peak is related to the increased flaring today. The other
      IMF components shown, Bz ,the proton density level and solar wind
      speed are irrelevant to what I have been talking about. These would
      be good references if I were trying to forecast a geomagnetic storm
      but I am not doing that. I did mention electric field though so maybe
      I should have used the term electrical environment. Mind you this is
      just speculative. Just trying to solve a riddle that seems to be out

      . . .

      "Some solar eruptions are related to particle enhancements and just
      about all come from hotter sunspot regions unless it's origin is from
      a DSF outside of a sunspot region. A good deal of these eruptions, or
      when the region is beginning to erupt or decay, are accompanied by
      solar radio bursts and sweeps. Some are fixed frequencies others are
      not. We know that thunderstorm activity effects radio waves. Some
      studies have shown a correlation at the mid-higher lattitudes of
      thunderstorm activity around the time of solar maximum. I have
      noticed a possible relationship between storm development/enhancement
      and certain radio bursts/Sweeps. I have also noticed some
      relationship with electron readings. Even if one thinks the physcial
      relationship is impossible it may not be. Do we really know how the
      IMF vibrates with these eruptions. It may talk to these particles in
      a way that we currently can not comprehend. I do not know enough
      about electricity/convection to know exactly what these increased
      negatively charged particles could do to our environment but I have
      often wondered. While I am straying I will say one more thing since
      we might be talking about some type of electrical convection
      enhancement. Everyone knows the 80 degree SST readings seems to be
      the threshold for tropical activity/growth. These warmer waters also
      have another possible connection. They can carry along more salt.
      That is what keeps the conveyor belt process going. More salt means
      more electrical conductivity potential. Just a thought. I would be
      interested in hearing more about the new moon connection. I am always
      looking for an edge in forecasting reliability. I have read about the
      possible lunar influence on the cyclical nature of the Aleutian Low
      (18.5 years) but not about tropical devlopment. So I am guessing that
      you are telling me that more storms develop between the new and full
      moon and not the other way around?"


      As we have discussed here repeatedly, the microphysics of clouds are
      impacted in DC fields. For those interested and not yet informed, I
      suggest reading for starters the 'China paper' located here:


      "The effects of electric field on ice crystal growth had been
      numerically discussed by Scishcheve and Kusalike6-7. They announced
      that the strength of an electric field able to change the ice lattice
      from normal ice(Ih) to cubic ice (Ic) should be at least 10 to the
      5th kV/m [fair weather voltages are about 10 to the -1 k volts per
      meter]. However, the strength of the electric field used in our
      experiments was only 1/400 of the 10 to the 5th kV/m [fair weather
      voltages would be on order of 1/1,000,000 of these voltages, whereas
      w/ tropical storm transiants above the eye, the transiant ratios
      would be similar to the experiments]. Thus, the morphological change
      of the ice in this study was not caused by the ice lattice change.
      Without the electric field, the crystal growth process could be
      considered as a process whereby the water molecules are added one by
      one to the crystal lattice. This 'adding' process has normally the
      same probability in all directions, and leads to the formation of the
      symmetric ice crystal [figure omitted]. However, when a high voltage
      field is applied, the electric field may cause different molecules in
      the DMSO solution[a weak acid--what should be noted is rain water is
      slightly acidic from the CO2 and other particles that get dissolved
      in the air--with a pH of about 5.6] to exhibit different behaviors.
      The polar water molecules/clusters may be torqued and rearranged
      under the action of the electric field and forced to joining the
      lattice in a special orientation and position. Hence, different
      growth rates occur in different directions and the ice crystal
      becomes asymmetric. Under the action of an electric field, the water
      molecules may rearrange and line up end to end in the direction of
      the electric field. In viewing the crystal structure, this well-
      ordered water molecules/clusters seems like crystal or quasi-
      crystallines. In this case the water molecules/clusters possess an
      ideal situation for rapid crystal growth. That may be the reason why
      the main branches, which are parallel to the direction of the
      electric field, grow faster than the other branches."

      These ELECTRICAL features of clouds ultimately get to big
      macrobiology questions respecting abiogenesis and how nucleotides
      inside cloud parasols would solve the problem of a living EMF. And
      my comment all along is that the physics people will and continue to
      look at the problem of climate as what comes to the earth rather than
      what a living earth does to what comes, that the system is a
      modulated one, and biological. The policy implications of CO2 NOT as
      a green house gas but as a bio-electrical aspect pertaining to
      conductivities and these behaviors described herein are HUGE . . .
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