** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The rather brisk solar and geomagnetic activity has calmed
down...temporarily. Sunspot region 652 is now on the western limb of
the solar disk. However, it got off a parting shot in the form of an
M2 class flare, and hurled a partial-halo CME our way. While the bulk
of the CME will miss us, we should get a glancing blow from it
sometime during the overnight hours or tomorrow. Thus, an aurora
watch remains in effect. There were many very good aurora pictures
taken in various locations over the last week. They can be seen here
Looking ahead, things should remain relatively calm for awhile. There
is one small sunspot region visible in the middle of the solar disk,
but it doesn't appear to have any flare-generating potential.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 32
SFI : 100
A index : 12
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 471.4 km/sec
Solar wind density : 0.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.4 nPa
IMF : 3.7 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.4 nT North
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B3
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to moderate levels.
Region 652 may yet produce another M-class flare before rotating
completely beyond the solar west limb through day one (30 July).
Expect activity to decrease to very low to low levels by 31 July.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm
levels throughout the period. The elevated conditions are expected due
to the anticipated shock passages from the CME activity seen on LASCO
imagery from the long duration C4 that occurred early yesterday and
the C2 that occurred today.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
28-Jul-2004 0006Z M2.0
27-Jul-2004 2020Z M1.5
27-Jul-2004 0545Z M1.1
26-Jul-2004 1730Z M1.1
26-Jul-2004 0552Z M1.3