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Solar Activity Report for 7/26/04

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  • David
    ** G-3 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch in Effect ** There hasn t been this kind of activity since
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 26, 2004
      ** G-3 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
      ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch in Effect **

      There hasn't been this kind of activity since back during the Solar
      Max, and I can't remember when I've ever posted a solar wind speed of
      over 1000 km/sec. However, that's what's happening now. At one time
      earlier today, we had a G-4 (severe) geomagnetic storm and an S-3
      (strong) solar radiation storm in progress. The last few days have
      seen prolonged geomagnetic storm conditions, and aurora have been seen
      as far south as Nebraska, Kansas, and Utah. Aurora have been spotted
      and photographed all over Canada, Alaska, and the northern half of the
      US. Take a moment to look at these links. Some of the pictures are
      really beautiful.

      The source of this amazing activity has been sunspot region 652, which
      even now is continuing to launch flares. There have been a string of
      CME's to strike Earth's magnetosphere. The most recent impact was
      from a long duration M1.1 flare on the 25th. Region 652 is getting
      closer to the western limb of the solar disk, but it isn't going
      quietly. At this moment, there is another M-class flare in progress,
      which looks like its about an M1.3. As region 652 gets onto the limb
      itself, we should be treated to some truly magnificant ultraviolet
      pictures of gigantic filaments suspended above the visible surface of
      the sun by the intense magnetic fields associated with this very
      active sunspot region, courtesy of the SOHO spacecraft EIT imager.

      Looking ahead, once region 652 rotates out of view, there isn't very
      much coming in behind it, and we should see the activity level drop
      off dramatically.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 113
      SFI : 138
      A index : 30
      K index : 7

      Solar wind speed : 1018.0 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 0.8 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.9 nPa

      IMF : 25.2 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.2 nT North

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B6

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G2 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
      the S2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be strong.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level are expected. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S2 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
      the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 652 will likely
      produce further M-class activity and still maintains potential for a
      major flare.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm
      levels. A full halo CME was observed on LASCO imagery following
      yesterday's long duration M1 flare at 25/1514Z. This CME will likely
      impact the geomagnetic field early on 27 July. Expect minor to major
      storm periods at all latitudes and severe storm levels at high
      latitudes. The storm is expected to end by 28 July. Mostly unsettled
      to active conditions are expected on 28 July. A return to quiet to
      unsettled levels is expected on 29 July with isolated high latitude
      active period possible. The greater than 10 MeV proton event in
      progress now will likely end on 28 July.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      26-Jul-2004 1730Z M1.1
      26-Jul-2004 0552Z M1.3
      25-Jul-2004 1514Z M1.1
      25-Jul-2004 1349Z M2.2
      25-Jul-2004 0639Z M1.0
      25-Jul-2004 0551Z M7.1
      24-Jul-2004 1850Z M2.5
      24-Jul-2004 0606Z M1.0
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