Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Solar Activity Report for 7/16/04

Expand Messages
  • David
    ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** To say that there has been some activity would be an understatement. Sunspot region 649
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 16, 2004
    • 0 Attachment
      ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      To say that there has been some activity would be an understatement.
      Sunspot region 649 has produced a series of X-class flares.
      Curiously, there haven't been any substantial CME's associated with
      any of the flares. Nevertheless, the solar wind speed is elevated,
      and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has taken on a south-pointing
      orientation. The result is geomagnetic storm conditions that have
      reached the G-2 (Moderate) level within the last 24 hours. If all of
      that weren't enough, things may be about to get even more interesting.
      Sunspot region 652 is coming into view. This is the same one that
      fired off a back side full-halo CME not too long ago. It appears to
      be radiating strongly in ultraviolet, possibly indicating an active
      sunspot region. Time will tell as 652 comes into better view. In the
      mean time, 649 is now in an Earth-pointing position. If it does
      launch a CME, it'll be headed our way.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 142
      SFI : 147
      A index : 11
      K index : 5 (G-1 geomagnetic storm level)

      Solar wind speed : 551.0 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.3 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.7 nPa

      IMF : 8.8 nT
      IMF Orientation : 8.5 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B8

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R3
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the nest 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R2 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 649 is
      expected to continue to produce M-class flares and has a fair chance
      for producing more major flare activity during the next three days
      (17-19 July). These events could become geoeffective (i.e. earthward
      directed CMEs or proton events) as the region evolves and as it moves
      near central meridian and into the western hemisphere.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next
      three days (17-19 July). As noted previously, however, there is a
      possibility that Region 649 could produce some events that could
      increase geomagnetic activity during the forecast interval.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      16-Jul-2004 1628Z M1.2
      16-Jul-2004 1355Z X3.6
      16-Jul-2004 1041Z X1.1
      16-Jul-2004 0206Z X1.3
      15-Jul-2004 1824Z X1.6
      15-Jul-2004 0141Z X1.8
      14-Jul-2004 1816Z M1.0
      14-Jul-2004 0523Z M6.2
    Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.