Solar Activity Report for 7/16/04
- ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
To say that there has been some activity would be an understatement.
Sunspot region 649 has produced a series of X-class flares.
Curiously, there haven't been any substantial CME's associated with
any of the flares. Nevertheless, the solar wind speed is elevated,
and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has taken on a south-pointing
orientation. The result is geomagnetic storm conditions that have
reached the G-2 (Moderate) level within the last 24 hours. If all of
that weren't enough, things may be about to get even more interesting.
Sunspot region 652 is coming into view. This is the same one that
fired off a back side full-halo CME not too long ago. It appears to
be radiating strongly in ultraviolet, possibly indicating an active
sunspot region. Time will tell as 652 comes into better view. In the
mean time, 649 is now in an Earth-pointing position. If it does
launch a CME, it'll be headed our way.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 142
SFI : 147
A index : 11
K index : 5 (G-1 geomagnetic storm level)
Solar wind speed : 551.0 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.3 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.7 nPa
IMF : 8.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 8.5 nT South
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B8
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R3
Forecast for the nest 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate. Radio
blackouts reaching the R2 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 649 is
expected to continue to produce M-class flares and has a fair chance
for producing more major flare activity during the next three days
(17-19 July). These events could become geoeffective (i.e. earthward
directed CMEs or proton events) as the region evolves and as it moves
near central meridian and into the western hemisphere.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next
three days (17-19 July). As noted previously, however, there is a
possibility that Region 649 could produce some events that could
increase geomagnetic activity during the forecast interval.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
16-Jul-2004 1628Z M1.2
16-Jul-2004 1355Z X3.6
16-Jul-2004 1041Z X1.1
16-Jul-2004 0206Z X1.3
15-Jul-2004 1824Z X1.6
15-Jul-2004 0141Z X1.8
14-Jul-2004 1816Z M1.0
14-Jul-2004 0523Z M6.2