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Solar Activity Report for 7/13/04

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  • David
    Solar activity has increased quickly and dramatically since my last report. The sunspot number is significantly higher, as are the SFI and background X-ray
    Message 1 of 1 , Jul 13, 2004
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      Solar activity has increased quickly and dramatically since my last
      report. The sunspot number is significantly higher, as are the SFI
      and background X-ray flux. Sunspot regions 646 and newly emerged 649
      have combined to produce 6 significant flares within the past 24
      hours, the largest being a very respectable M6 class flare from region
      646. Region 649 is the one that launched the back side full-halo CME
      a few days ago towards Saturn. Region 646 is close to rotating out of
      view over the western limb of the solar disk, so while it is quite
      active, it won't be a factor much longer. Region 649, however, has
      just come into view, so it'll be around awhile. Additionally, the
      solar wind speed is elevated, indicating a high-speed solar wind
      stream coming from a small coronal hole. Look for solar activity to
      stay high, and while the CME's from the flares of sunspot region 646
      were not Earth-directed, there is a chance we could receive a glancing
      blow in about three days.

      The current solar and geromagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 129
      SFI : 127
      A index : 16
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 510.4 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.1 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.5 nPa

      IMF : 4.2 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.4 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B7

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R2 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate, with Region 646 and
      649 the most likely sources for activity. There is a fair chance for
      continued major flare activity, particularly out of Region 646.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next
      three days. Unsettled with some active periods at high latitudes is
      expected on the third day as a possible response to a glancing blow
      from one or the other of today's CMEs.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      13-Jul-2004 1932Z M6.2
      13-Jul-2004 1838Z M1.1
      13-Jul-2004 1208Z M2.9
      13-Jul-2004 0848Z M5.4
      13-Jul-2004 0017Z M6.7
      12-Jul-2004 0808Z M1.6
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