Over at TWC a poster wrote:
"Over the weekend Dr. Steve Lyons mentioned that the typhoon season
in the western Pacific has become the most active since 1961.
Not mentioned was the Atlantic basin - while the western Pacific was
very active that year, the 1961 Atlantic hurricane season totals were
slightly below normal, with Hurricane Carla being the only major
hurricane to make lanfall along the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic
Although it has been noted that El Nino conditions do not exist at
this time, perhaps another unknown condition does exist, since there
has been a noticeable absence of any disturbed weather in the western
Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea through the early-season
May and June period."
As I have mentioned, when a typhoon roils the oceans it causes
upwellings and microbial blooms. This in turn increases
conductivities in the oceans and increases the chances for electrical
conditions to equate to another storm to form. Over time, the
chances and probabilities meet the law of large numbers, and reality
approaches probability, and you have a very determined dampening that
occurs. Whether that dampening occurs by way of ENSO, or by tropical
storm variability, dampening indeed occurs.
In this instance, the upwelling off the Eastern Pacific Central
American coast increased conductivities there, which has resulted in
no real swing in SSTs aka ENSO. BUT, as the strikes over America
have increased with the summer, the elongation of clouds, or cloud
microphysics along the west coast, where there was an earlier very
strong bloom, has prevented storms along the West Coast. Hence, it
would be of no surprise to me to see the SOI stay somewhat negative,
and that will decidely surpress any tropical storm activity in the
Atlantic or GOM. What we saw with the rising SOI and the 60 k strike
event of a few days ago, rather than a forming TS in the Atlantic is
these TWO storms over the W. Pacific, and now a reversal to the
negative 45 SOI--there is absolutely no chance, electrically, for a
Atlantic or GOM storm to form with a SOI that negative and falling.