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Active West Pacific typhoon season and gaia

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  • mike@usinter.net
    Over at TWC a poster wrote: Over the weekend Dr. Steve Lyons mentioned that the typhoon season in the western Pacific has become the most active since 1961.
    Message 1 of 1 , Jun 28, 2004
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      Over at TWC a poster wrote:

      "Over the weekend Dr. Steve Lyons mentioned that the typhoon season
      in the western Pacific has become the most active since 1961.

      Not mentioned was the Atlantic basin - while the western Pacific was
      very active that year, the 1961 Atlantic hurricane season totals were
      slightly below normal, with Hurricane Carla being the only major
      hurricane to make lanfall along the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic
      coastlines.

      Although it has been noted that El Nino conditions do not exist at
      this time, perhaps another unknown condition does exist, since there
      has been a noticeable absence of any disturbed weather in the western
      Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea through the early-season
      May and June period."

      As I have mentioned, when a typhoon roils the oceans it causes
      upwellings and microbial blooms. This in turn increases
      conductivities in the oceans and increases the chances for electrical
      conditions to equate to another storm to form. Over time, the
      chances and probabilities meet the law of large numbers, and reality
      approaches probability, and you have a very determined dampening that
      occurs. Whether that dampening occurs by way of ENSO, or by tropical
      storm variability, dampening indeed occurs.

      In this instance, the upwelling off the Eastern Pacific Central
      American coast increased conductivities there, which has resulted in
      no real swing in SSTs aka ENSO. BUT, as the strikes over America
      have increased with the summer, the elongation of clouds, or cloud
      microphysics along the west coast, where there was an earlier very
      strong bloom, has prevented storms along the West Coast. Hence, it
      would be of no surprise to me to see the SOI stay somewhat negative,
      and that will decidely surpress any tropical storm activity in the
      Atlantic or GOM. What we saw with the rising SOI and the 60 k strike
      event of a few days ago, rather than a forming TS in the Atlantic is
      these TWO storms over the W. Pacific, and now a reversal to the
      negative 45 SOI--there is absolutely no chance, electrically, for a
      Atlantic or GOM storm to form with a SOI that negative and falling.
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