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Re: Solar Activity Report for 5/28/04

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  • mike@usinter.net
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040529_rpts.html I am replying to this late because I am now starting to get it . We had the start of our dry season
    Message 1 of 2 , Jun 7, 2004

      I am replying to this late because I am now starting to 'get it'. We
      had the start of our dry season with this passing storm, IMHO, and I
      note that a few days later on 5/4/04 Florida got a taste of its rainy
      season's first rains. IMHO springtime thunderstorm activity is less
      about solar flaring as a direct causal mechanism and more about a
      shift between a stability via rain seasons. I have heard it
      expressed a different way by a email friend from India, who says that
      often a large tropical storm will jumpstart the monsoons and tropical
      storms are HUGE electrical events.

      I also think it's interesting that prior to the outbreak there was a
      lack of flaring so that the earth EMF might pattern above and beyond
      what convection brings. IOWs the instabilities are electrically
      patterned by the convection itself--but the switch, the key to the
      instability is an electrical change between seasonal sets of
      conductivities between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, IMHO. We saw
      in the spring a north to south driven pattern FROM the Pacific,
      largely about signal noise and seasonal tilting. IOWs cold to the
      north allows patterns to arise between solar flaring particles
      brought to closing isobars of the earth EMF. The Atlantic has a
      different set of size and temperature profiles (electrically
      speaking) such that the wintertime waves are dominated by the
      Pacific. Toward the end, or up to the end of May, we saw a tropical
      storm attempting to form in Central America, and that held together
      the sub tropical jet, and a pattern (electrical) of Doran waves up
      and down the coast. The key is the organization was not from the
      north running south, but rather from the south running north. Now,
      here's the catch. Eventually this subtropical flow of moisture
      brings so much thunderstorm activity that the ionosphere becomes very
      (relatively) positively charged, in a seasonal sense. Eventually,
      that leads to a broad DC coupling along the west coast and the upper
      jet forced far north and eventually that leads to a sharp trough. At
      the same time, the coupling has a different diffusion (water vapor
      movement) impact on the GOM and Atlantic. As it is a period of
      change, there are a number of electrical and thermodynamic
      instabilities, and you can have huge numbers of severe weather events.

      --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
      > There is but a single sunspot region visible on the solar disk
      > tonight, that being sunspot region 618. It is, however, a big one,
      > and has the potential for generating an M-class flare. It is fairly
      > close to rotating over the western limb of the solar disk. In the
      > absence of any new sunspot regions coming into view, look for the
      > sunspot number to drop rapidly. Speaking of things coming into
      > there is a coronal hole that is rotating into an Earth-pointing
      > position. We should start seeing high speed solar wind gusts from
      > on or about the 31st.
      > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
      > NOAA sunspot number : 52
      > SFI : 102
      > A index : 9
      > K index : 4
      > Solar wind speed : 432.1 km/sec
      > Solar wind density : 1.9 protons/cc
      > Solar wind pressure : 0.5 nPa
      > IMF : 6.1 nT
      > IMF Orientation : 0.1 nT South
      > GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B2
      > Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      > No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
      > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      > No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
      > Solar activity forecast :
      > Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 618 may produce C- and
      > isolated M-class flares.
      > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      > The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the
      > next three days. Isolated active conditions are possible late on day
      > three (May 31) as a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream begins
      > to move into geoeffective position. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit
      > will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about 30 May to 2
      > 2004. During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere
      > spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind plasma,
      > magnetic field, and particle data.
      > Recent significant solar flare activity :
      > None
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