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Solar Activity Report for 5/28/04

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  • David
    There is but a single sunspot region visible on the solar disk tonight, that being sunspot region 618. It is, however, a big one, and has the potential for
    Message 1 of 2 , May 28, 2004
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      There is but a single sunspot region visible on the solar disk
      tonight, that being sunspot region 618. It is, however, a big one,
      and has the potential for generating an M-class flare. It is fairly
      close to rotating over the western limb of the solar disk. In the
      absence of any new sunspot regions coming into view, look for the
      sunspot number to drop rapidly. Speaking of things coming into view,
      there is a coronal hole that is rotating into an Earth-pointing
      position. We should start seeing high speed solar wind gusts from it
      on or about the 31st.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 52
      SFI : 102
      A index : 9
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 432.1 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.9 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.5 nPa

      IMF : 6.1 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.1 nT South

      GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B2

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 618 may produce C- and
      isolated M-class flares.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the
      next three days. Isolated active conditions are possible late on day
      three (May 31) as a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream begins
      to move into geoeffective position. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit
      will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about 30 May to 2 June
      2004. During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere with
      spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind plasma,
      magnetic field, and particle data.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
    • mike@usinter.net
      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040529_rpts.html I am replying to this late because I am now starting to get it . We had the start of our dry season
      Message 2 of 2 , Jun 7, 2004
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        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040529_rpts.html

        I am replying to this late because I am now starting to 'get it'. We
        had the start of our dry season with this passing storm, IMHO, and I
        note that a few days later on 5/4/04 Florida got a taste of its rainy
        season's first rains. IMHO springtime thunderstorm activity is less
        about solar flaring as a direct causal mechanism and more about a
        shift between a stability via rain seasons. I have heard it
        expressed a different way by a email friend from India, who says that
        often a large tropical storm will jumpstart the monsoons and tropical
        storms are HUGE electrical events.

        I also think it's interesting that prior to the outbreak there was a
        lack of flaring so that the earth EMF might pattern above and beyond
        what convection brings. IOWs the instabilities are electrically
        patterned by the convection itself--but the switch, the key to the
        instability is an electrical change between seasonal sets of
        conductivities between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, IMHO. We saw
        in the spring a north to south driven pattern FROM the Pacific,
        largely about signal noise and seasonal tilting. IOWs cold to the
        north allows patterns to arise between solar flaring particles
        brought to closing isobars of the earth EMF. The Atlantic has a
        different set of size and temperature profiles (electrically
        speaking) such that the wintertime waves are dominated by the
        Pacific. Toward the end, or up to the end of May, we saw a tropical
        storm attempting to form in Central America, and that held together
        the sub tropical jet, and a pattern (electrical) of Doran waves up
        and down the coast. The key is the organization was not from the
        north running south, but rather from the south running north. Now,
        here's the catch. Eventually this subtropical flow of moisture
        brings so much thunderstorm activity that the ionosphere becomes very
        (relatively) positively charged, in a seasonal sense. Eventually,
        that leads to a broad DC coupling along the west coast and the upper
        jet forced far north and eventually that leads to a sharp trough. At
        the same time, the coupling has a different diffusion (water vapor
        movement) impact on the GOM and Atlantic. As it is a period of
        change, there are a number of electrical and thermodynamic
        instabilities, and you can have huge numbers of severe weather events.






        --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
        wrote:
        > There is but a single sunspot region visible on the solar disk
        > tonight, that being sunspot region 618. It is, however, a big one,
        > and has the potential for generating an M-class flare. It is fairly
        > close to rotating over the western limb of the solar disk. In the
        > absence of any new sunspot regions coming into view, look for the
        > sunspot number to drop rapidly. Speaking of things coming into
        view,
        > there is a coronal hole that is rotating into an Earth-pointing
        > position. We should start seeing high speed solar wind gusts from
        it
        > on or about the 31st.
        >
        > The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
        >
        > NOAA sunspot number : 52
        > SFI : 102
        > A index : 9
        > K index : 4
        >
        > Solar wind speed : 432.1 km/sec
        > Solar wind density : 1.9 protons/cc
        > Solar wind pressure : 0.5 nPa
        >
        > IMF : 6.1 nT
        > IMF Orientation : 0.1 nT South
        >
        > GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B2
        >
        > Conditions for the last 24 hours :
        > No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
        >
        > Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        > No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
        >
        > Solar activity forecast :
        > Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 618 may produce C- and
        > isolated M-class flares.
        >
        > Geomagnetic activity forecast :
        > The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the
        > next three days. Isolated active conditions are possible late on day
        > three (May 31) as a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream begins
        > to move into geoeffective position. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit
        > will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about 30 May to 2
        June
        > 2004. During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere
        with
        > spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind plasma,
        > magnetic field, and particle data.
        >
        > Recent significant solar flare activity :
        > None
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