** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The solar wind speed continues to be elevated in the 500 km/sec range,
and there is at least an outside chance of aurora in the higher
latitudes. An aurora watch remains in effect. The increased solar
wind speeds are expected to last about another 24 hours. There's been
some flare activity to report. Sunspot region 618, which has recently
rotated into view, fired off an M2 event late on the 21st. It's
possible we could see another M-class flare from this sunspot region
in the days ahead.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 79
SFI : 102
A index : 13
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 477.9 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.9 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.7 nPa
IMF : 6.1 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.3 nT North
GOES-8 Background X-ray Flux level : B2
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected be mostly low, but there is a fair chance
for additional, isolated M-class activity from Region 618.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next
24 hours (23 May), but should transition to mostly quiet as the high
speed solar wind is expected to decline gradually late on the 23rd
through the 24th. Conditions should be mostly quiet with occasional
periods of unsettled levels for the 2nd and 3rd days (24-25 May).
Recent significant solar flare activity :
2004-05-21 2352Z M2.3