Solar Activity Report for 5/1/04
- I think the CME from the C-3 flare I talked about earlier has come and
gone. I did see the solar wind density spike, although the speed rose
only mildly. There wasn't anything in the way of geomagnetic activity
to mark the event. There is a coronal hole that is rotating into an
Earth pointing position. As coronal holes go, it's medium-sized. It
is also straddling the solar equator, so we should see some solar wind
gusts from it. Look for them to arrive on or about May 3rd. There
are two numbered sunspot regions visible tonight. One of them, region
601, has shown some signs of activity, and is growing. The background
X-ray flux has risen, and region 601 came close to making the
significant flare generating category by firing off a C-9 event on the
1st. This sunspot region bears watching in the days ahead.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOSS sunspot number : 65
SFI : 94
A index : 11
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 392.1 km/sec
Solar wind density : 6.3 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.7 nPa
IMF : 8.2 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.3 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to remain low. There is an increased chance
for an isolated M-class x-ray event.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at unsettled to active
levels for the rest of 01 May. By 02 and 03 May, a high-speed solar
wind stream associated with a coronal hole is expected to intersect
the Earth's magnetic field. Activity should increase to minor storming
late on 02 May and into early 03 May, dropping back down to active
levels by 04 May as the high-speed stream passes.
Recent significant solar flare activity :