Solar Activity for 4/25/04
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
Two sunspot regions, regions 597 and 599, have combined to produce a
pair of M-class flare in the last 48 hours. Region 597 has rotated
over the western limb of the solar disk, but region 599 is still in
view. Region 599 has the potential for producing another significant
flare or two. Although there haven't been any new images from the
SOHO satellite since it encountered problems on the 22nd, there should
be a coronal hole in an Earth-pointing position now. We should
encountering the solar wind gusts from on Monday, thus the aurora
watch. If aurora do occur, the best sightings will be in the higher
latitudes. Hopefully SOHO will be placed back in normal mode on Monday.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 45
SFI : 107
A index : 12
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 500.5 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.0 nPa
IMF : 4.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.3 nT North
Conditions for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a fair
chance for an additional, isolated M-class event during the next three
days from Region 599.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field should persist at the current, mostly unsettled
levels for the next 24-36 hours (26 April to partway through 27
April). A decrease is expected to begin partway through the 2nd day
(27 April) and quiet to unsettled levels should prevail on the third
day (28 April).
Recent significant solar flare activity :
25-Apr-2004 0537Z M2.2
23-Apr-2004 2112Z M1.1