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Solar Activity Report for 4/12/04

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Active conditions have persisted over the last 48 hours, although there hasn t been anything to write home about. I ll leave the
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 12 11:17 PM
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Active conditions have persisted over the last 48 hours, although
      there hasn't been anything to write home about. I'll leave the aurora
      watch in effect, mainly due to the elevated solar wind speed, which is
      hovering around 500 km/sec. There won't be any widespread aurora
      events, but there may be an occasional sighting in the higher
      latitudes. The M-1 flare of Thursday launched a nice partial-halo
      CME. While it isn't squarely Earth-directed, we should receive a
      glancing blow from it on the 13th. That could trigger intermittent
      G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions. Sunspot region 588 is soon to
      disappear over the western limb of the solar disk. Once it's gone, we
      could be in for something of a quiet period. No other numbered
      sunspot regions are being shown at this time, although the SOHO
      satellite UV imagery shows a hot spot right in the middle of the solar
      disk, which could be a sunspot in the making.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 37
      SFI : 91
      A index : 13
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 520.3 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.0 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.4 nPa

      IMF : 3.7 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.8 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active
      levels. Minor storm conditions may occur on 13 April in response to a
      shock passage from yesterdays C9 flare and the associated partial halo
      CME. 14 and 15 April should see a return to predominantly unsettled
      levels with the potential for active conditions, mostly in high
      latitude nighttime sectors.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
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