Solar Activity Report for 4/12/04
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
Active conditions have persisted over the last 48 hours, although
there hasn't been anything to write home about. I'll leave the aurora
watch in effect, mainly due to the elevated solar wind speed, which is
hovering around 500 km/sec. There won't be any widespread aurora
events, but there may be an occasional sighting in the higher
latitudes. The M-1 flare of Thursday launched a nice partial-halo
CME. While it isn't squarely Earth-directed, we should receive a
glancing blow from it on the 13th. That could trigger intermittent
G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions. Sunspot region 588 is soon to
disappear over the western limb of the solar disk. Once it's gone, we
could be in for something of a quiet period. No other numbered
sunspot regions are being shown at this time, although the SOHO
satellite UV imagery shows a hot spot right in the middle of the solar
disk, which could be a sunspot in the making.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 37
SFI : 91
A index : 13
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 520.3 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.0 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.4 nPa
IMF : 3.7 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.8 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active
levels. Minor storm conditions may occur on 13 April in response to a
shock passage from yesterdays C9 flare and the associated partial halo
CME. 14 and 15 April should see a return to predominantly unsettled
levels with the potential for active conditions, mostly in high
latitude nighttime sectors.
Recent significant solar flare activity :