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Solar Activity Report for 4/3/04

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Remember the long duration C-class flare I mentioned a few days ago? Well, it s associated CME struck home today, and triggered a
    Message 1 of 1 , Apr 3 10:27 PM
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Remember the long duration C-class flare I mentioned a few days ago?
      Well, it's associated CME struck home today, and triggered a G-1
      geomagnetic storm. Skywatchers in the higher latitudes should keep an
      eye out for aurora. There was some uncertainty as to whether or not
      there had been a CME, as SOHO satellite data is somewhat lacking for
      the time being. That situation will be corrected in a few days. Thge
      active conditions caused by the shock passage are expected to last for
      at least the next 24 hours. Then, the Earth will move into a high
      speed solar wind stream coming from a coronal hole that has rotated
      into an Earth-pointing position. That could add to the activity,
      possibly even kicking things up to the major storm level. There are
      four numbered sunspot regions visible, although none appear capable of
      generating a significant flare at this time. However, as you've just
      seen, it doesn't necessarily take a large flare to produce a CME.

      The current and solar geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 68
      SFI : 107
      A index : 26
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 479.2 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.8 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.6 nPa

      IMF : 13.0 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.0 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
      reaching the G1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active levels
      for 4-5 April. During the first two days, isolated minor storm
      conditions may persist especially in the nighttime sectors, due to the
      potential of further transient activity, and the likelihood of a
      recurrent co-rotating interaction region. Major storm levels are
      expected due to a strong recurrent high speed coronal hole stream that
      is due to become geoeffective on 6 April.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
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