Solar Activity Report for 3/29/04
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The solar wind speed has dropped significantly from my last report,
but is still high. Therefore, an aurora watch remains in effect. G-1
geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed within the last 24
hours, although it was only a brief event. The elevated solar wind
speed is expected to last for the next 24 hours before returning to a
more normal level. Currently, there are five numbered sunspot regions
visible. Of the group, region 582 appears to have the best chace of
generating a significant flare. While region 582 hasn't generated a
significant flare since the 26th, it did let loose several mid to high
level C-class flares today, and the background X-ray flux is rising.
I wouldn't be surprised if at least one more M-class flare is recorded
before region 582 rotates out of view.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 169
SFI : 129
A index : 13
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 573.1 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.4 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa
IMF : 4.2 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.1 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. There is a chance,
however, for an isolated M-class flare from Region 582 during the next
three days (30 March - 1 April).
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a slight chance
for an active period during the next 24 hours (30 March). Conditions
should decline to quiet to unsettled for the second and third days (31
March - 1 April) as the solar wind returns to nominal conditions.
Recent significant solar flare activity :