Solar Activity Report for 3/27/04
- Sorry for the delay! I've had some other things going on. So,
without further adeau (sp?)
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The Earth has moved inside of a high speed solar wind stream,
presumably coming from a coronal hole. I say presumably, because the
SOHO satellite is currently in a time period when image return is
impaired. It has to do with a previous malfunction in SOHO's
high-gain antenna pointing mechanism. See this link for more
information : http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/ , and click on "What's New."
Anyway, back to the coronal hole. X-ray pictures from the GOES Solar
X-ray Imager showed a coronal hole moving into position on the 25th,
so I assume that's what's happening. The solar wind speed is over 900
km/sec, the fastest I've seen it in awhile. Thusfar, there haven't
been any geomagnetic storm conditions observed, but that could easily
changed. There has also been some activity on the flare side of
things. Sunspot region 582 spawned an M-1 class flare late on the
24th, and an M-2 flare on the 25th. The background X-ray flux has
descreased since then, although region 582 still has significant
flare-generating potential. Since region 582 has just rotated into
view, it'll be around for a few days, so stay tuned. Expect the
elevated solar wind speed to persist for the next three days.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 100
SFI : 128
A index : 15
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 920.1 km/sec
Solar wind density : 0.9 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.6 nPa
IMF : 6.9 nT
IMF Orientation : 5.4 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 582
has the potential to produce an M-class flare.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to
active levels. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected
to be geo-effective throughout the period with isolated minor storm
conditions possible, mostly at higher latitudes.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
25-Mar-2004 0439Z M2.3
24-Mar-2004 2329Z M1.5