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Solar Activity Report for 3/8/04

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  • David
    Sunspot region 570, already the source of an M-class flare, has rotated into full view. It s definitely a big one, spanning over eight Earth diameters
    Message 1 of 1 , Mar 8, 2004
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      Sunspot region 570, already the source of an M-class flare, has
      rotated into full view. It's definitely a big one, spanning over
      eight Earth diameters end-to-end. Although it has been quiet since
      its M-class flare on the 6th, it definitely shows the potential for
      generating another significant flare. In fact, the background X-ray
      flux has started rising within the last few hours, so stay tuned. A
      large coronal hole is now squarely in an Earth-pointing position. We
      should see the first solar wind gusts from it either Tuesday or
      Wednesday. I wouldn't be surprised to see an aurora watch go into
      effect. As always, the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic
      field will govern how much activity we see from this event.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 55
      SFI : 108
      A index : 8
      K index : 1

      Solar wind speed : 360.1 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.9 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.5 nPa

      IMF : 9.0 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.2 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 570 has the
      potential to produce C- and isolated M-class flares.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 9 March,
      with increasing activity to active and isolated minor storm conditions
      on 10 and 11 March. Increased activity is likely as Earth's magnetic
      field comes under the influence of a high speed solar wind stream
      originating from a coronal hole in geoeffective position.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      06-Mar-2004 1217Z M1.3
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