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Kossin and semi daily hurricane flux

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  • mike@usinter.net
    More Isabel There is no doubt that the rain in PR could be a coincidence and without expressing it mathematically and with probability analysis it is difficult
    Message 1 of 1 , Feb 27, 2004
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      More Isabel There is no doubt that the rain in PR could be a
      coincidence and without expressing it mathematically and with
      probability analysis it is difficult to appreciate what is
      discussed. But I want fair readers to understand is that if you look
      at a large hurricane as a very significant electrical event, there
      is a regional context that you can track from land to hurricane.
      Again, I point to Prof. Kossin, who appears to be a young "Marathon
      Man" mathematician at UW:

      http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/CV.html

      This CV page, again, contains a really cool paper on the day to
      night changes in hurricanes and then a part day to night changes in
      hurricanes. I submit that even THIS problem isn't being viewed as a
      problem of the varying ELECTRO static conditions of the atmosphere
      as it heats and the ionosphere expands between day and night as well
      has how convection removes electrons from the lower ionosphere and
      makes it in general relately more positively charged, and hence how
      a hurricane is ORGANIZED electrically varies by day and night.

      That paper is here:

      http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/articles/Kossin_2002_MWR.pdf

      Now, while this anecdotal, where it varifies is in its cohesivenss.
      It's like circumstantial evidence in a litigation of any sort--
      sometimes your best evidence.

      Now, what happens with a thunderstorm over land is during the day
      the air heats up and water vapor increases in the air. That water
      has evaporated of the surface. But as the day ends, the air is full
      of water vapor--but starting to cool. This causes the air to become
      saturated with water and it begins to condense. In so condensing, it
      gives phase change energies to the air, warming it, and causing it
      to further rise. Cooling air with the ending of the day falls. The
      air becomes more unstable. As ice forms moving higher into the air,
      and air also falls, charges are separated. This is the great heat
      and charge engine that drives lightning strikes.

      Generally speaking, this occurs in the afternoon over land.

      During the hurricane season, along the Cape Verde track path of
      hurricanes, these afternoon thunderstorms can impact the relative
      charge of the ionosphere from Africa, South America, Carribean
      Islands, and the United States. Because the typical places of high
      afternoon thunderstorm activity is fairly fixed, whereas a hurricane
      is not, individually the impact on the cirrus cloud disk cycles as
      part of a day but they hurricanes do not uniformly cycle. So in that
      sense this paper by Prof. Kossin neatly verifies.

      The cirrus canopy will expand during a weakening and organize
      tightly during an intensification. Read--organize electrically and
      thermally with cloud microphysics. It organizes, predictably, as
      Prof. Kossin notes, from both inside and outside the canopy, but for
      different reasons then he speculates. Largescale, low frequency ion
      waves (Doran waves) will cause microphysical cloud nucleation
      differences and organize the storm in patterns that feedback on the
      organization--"isomorphic with the two-dimensional Euler equations
      for inviscid incompressible flow (electron density vorticity and
      electrostatic potential streamfunction)".

      BTW, on the Discover Mag article on Hydrates. What you won't read is
      they are electrically insulating and hence impact the global
      electrical circuit and how these tropical storms form and behave
      relative to the land.
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