More Isabel There is no doubt that the rain in PR could be a
coincidence and without expressing it mathematically and with
probability analysis it is difficult to appreciate what is
discussed. But I want fair readers to understand is that if you look
at a large hurricane as a very significant electrical event, there
is a regional context that you can track from land to hurricane.
Again, I point to Prof. Kossin, who appears to be a young "Marathon
Man" mathematician at UW:
This CV page, again, contains a really cool paper on the day to
night changes in hurricanes and then a part day to night changes in
hurricanes. I submit that even THIS problem isn't being viewed as a
problem of the varying ELECTRO static conditions of the atmosphere
as it heats and the ionosphere expands between day and night as well
has how convection removes electrons from the lower ionosphere and
makes it in general relately more positively charged, and hence how
a hurricane is ORGANIZED electrically varies by day and night.
That paper is here:
Now, while this anecdotal, where it varifies is in its cohesivenss.
It's like circumstantial evidence in a litigation of any sort--
sometimes your best evidence.
Now, what happens with a thunderstorm over land is during the day
the air heats up and water vapor increases in the air. That water
has evaporated of the surface. But as the day ends, the air is full
of water vapor--but starting to cool. This causes the air to become
saturated with water and it begins to condense. In so condensing, it
gives phase change energies to the air, warming it, and causing it
to further rise. Cooling air with the ending of the day falls. The
air becomes more unstable. As ice forms moving higher into the air,
and air also falls, charges are separated. This is the great heat
and charge engine that drives lightning strikes.
Generally speaking, this occurs in the afternoon over land.
During the hurricane season, along the Cape Verde track path of
hurricanes, these afternoon thunderstorms can impact the relative
charge of the ionosphere from Africa, South America, Carribean
Islands, and the United States. Because the typical places of high
afternoon thunderstorm activity is fairly fixed, whereas a hurricane
is not, individually the impact on the cirrus cloud disk cycles as
part of a day but they hurricanes do not uniformly cycle. So in that
sense this paper by Prof. Kossin neatly verifies.
The cirrus canopy will expand during a weakening and organize
tightly during an intensification. Read--organize electrically and
thermally with cloud microphysics. It organizes, predictably, as
Prof. Kossin notes, from both inside and outside the canopy, but for
different reasons then he speculates. Largescale, low frequency ion
waves (Doran waves) will cause microphysical cloud nucleation
differences and organize the storm in patterns that feedback on the
organization--"isomorphic with the two-dimensional Euler equations
for inviscid incompressible flow (electron density vorticity and
electrostatic potential streamfunction)".
BTW, on the Discover Mag article on Hydrates. What you won't read is
they are electrically insulating and hence impact the global
electrical circuit and how these tropical storms form and behave
relative to the land.