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Solar Activity Report for 1/19/04

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The solar wind speed is still elevated tonight, and is expected to stay that way for about the next 48 hours. An aurora watch
    Message 1 of 2 , Jan 19, 2004
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The solar wind speed is still elevated tonight, and is expected to
      stay that way for about the next 48 hours. An aurora watch remains in
      effect. Sunspot region 540 is staying active, having produced two
      more M-class flares in the last 24 hours. The CME from the M-5 class
      flare is expected to arrive on or about the 20th, and could provide a
      further enhancement to the current level of activiy. As always, the
      degree of the effect of the CME will depend upon the interplanetary
      magnetic field and whether the CME is carrying a north-pointing or
      south-pointing IMF. Sunspot region 540 remains a threat for more
      M-class flares. Additionally, regions 542 and 543 are growing rather
      rapidly and bear watching in the days ahead.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 87
      SFI : 135
      A index : 16
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 575.5 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.4 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.9 nPa

      IMF : 4.4 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.1 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Further M-class
      activity is likely from Region 540. The new emerging flux and white
      light developments in Region 542 and newly numbered 543 suggest at
      least C-class potential.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at predominantly quiet
      to active levels. Isolated minor storm periods are possible on 20 - 21
      January. The coronal hole high speed stream that is currently in
      progress is expected to subside by 21 January. A CME associated with
      the M5 flare on 17 January may have a weak impact on the geomagnetic
      field on 20 January, slightly enhancing the current disturbance.
      Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 22 January.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      19-Jan-2004 1240Z M1.0
      19-Jan-2004 0532Z M1.0
      18-Jan-2004 0017Z M1.4
    • David
      ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progresss ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The past few days have been very active following the inpact of a series of CME s
      Message 2 of 2 , Jan 19, 2005
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        ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progresss **
        ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

        The past few days have been very active following the inpact of a
        series of CME's from string flares generated by sunspot region 720.
        Some beautiful aurora have been photographed in Canada, northern
        Europe, Alaska, and the northern US, as far south as Maryland.

        http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/gallery_01jan05_page2.htm

        Region 720 is getting close to the western limb of the solar disk, so
        the chances of another direct CME hit are diminishing. Nevertheless,
        geomagnetic storm conditions are expected to continue on and off for
        the next 48 hours before tapering off. After that, the Earth will be
        drifting into a ccoronal hole high speed solar wind stream, which may
        serve to kick the activity level up again.

        The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

        NOAA sunspot number : 66
        SFI : 133
        A index : 47
        K index : 2

        Solar wind speed : 658.1 km/sec
        Solar wind density : 0.2 protons/cc
        Solar wind pressure : 0.1 nPa

        IMF : 4.0 nT
        IMF Orientation : 3.7 nT North

        GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B6

        Conditions for the last 24 hours :
        Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
        storms reaching the G3 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
        the S2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level occurred.

        Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be strong.
        Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level are expected. Solar radiation
        storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
        the R3 level are expected.

        Solar activity forecast :
        Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 720 retains
        the potential for another major event.

        Geomagnetic activity forecast :
        The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at active to severe
        storm levels. Storm intensity is expected to taper off over the next
        48 hours, as is the 10 MeV proton event, barring another significant
        solar event in Region 720.

        Recent significant solar flare activity :
        19-Jan-2005 1540Z M1.6
        19-Jan-2005 1024Z M2.7
        19-Jan-2005 0822Z X1.3
        19-Jan-2005 0731Z M6.7
        18-Jan-2005 1551Z M4.6
        18-Jan-2005 1132Z M1.6
        17-Jan-2005 0952Z X3.8
        17-Jan-2005 0321Z M2.6
        16-Jan-2005 2203Z M2.4
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