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Solar Activity Report for 1/17/04

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The Earth is still inside of a high speed solar wind stream, with the solar wind speed over 500 km/sec, although it is slowing
    Message 1 of 1 , Jan 17, 2004
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The Earth is still inside of a high speed solar wind stream, with the
      solar wind speed over 500 km/sec, although it is slowing down from
      yesterday's level. G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been
      observed along with this event, and aurora have been seen and
      photographed in Canada and Alaska, as can be seen here :
      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/gallery_01jan04.htm .
      There's at least an outside of more geomagnetic storm conditions
      before things settle back down on or about the 18th. However, it
      could be only a brief respite. Sunspot region 540 has become active,
      producing two M-class flares within the last 24 hours, one of them
      being a very respectable M-5 event. The SOHO satellite imagery isn't
      available yet, but the space weather gurus say we could be seeing some
      increased activity on the 20th due to a CME associated with the M-5
      flare. More M-class flares from this sunspot region are a possibility.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 56
      SFI : 123
      A index : 15
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 569.5 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.9 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa

      IMF : 6.9 nT
      IMF Orientation : 3.8 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R2 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated M-class
      activity is possible from Region 540.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to active
      levels through 18 January as the high speed stream subsides. Quiet to
      unsettled conditions are expected on 19 January. A disturbance
      associated with today's M5 flare, is expect to begin on 20 January.
      Active to minor storm conditions are expected.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      17-Jan-2004 1750Z M5.0
      18-Jan-2004 0015Z M1.5
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