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Solar Activity Report for 1/15/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch in Effect ** Conditions are a bit unsettled tonight, and the solar wind speed has risen since my last report, and to be completely honest, I
    Message 1 of 3 , Jan 15, 2004
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      ** Aurora Watch in Effect **

      Conditions are a bit unsettled tonight, and the solar wind speed has
      risen since my last report, and to be completely honest, I have no
      idea why. There is a coronal hole that has rotated into an
      Earth-pointing position, but we weren't supposed to see any high speed
      solar wind gusts from it until late on the 16th. Oh well, I suppose
      the event could've arrived early. It will be intereting to see what
      happens over the next 48 hours. At any rate, as a result of the
      increased solar wind speed and anticipated coronal hole affects, an
      aurora watch in now in effect. Skywatchers in the higher latitudes
      should keep an eye out. Two numbered sunspot regions are visible, and
      both have at least an outside chance of generating a significant flare.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 57
      SFI : 119
      A index : 14
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 581.8 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 4.3 nT
      Solar wind pressure : 3.0 nPa

      IMF : 10.6 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.4 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 540 is capable of C-class
      and isolated M-class flare activity.

      Geomagnetic Activity Forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active, with isolated
      periods of minor storming on 17 and 18 January due to the anticipated
      arrival of high speed solar wind from a geoeffective coronal hole.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
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