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Solar Activity Report for 1/12/04

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  • David
    All is relatively quiet tonight as the Earth exits a high speed solar wind stream While the solar wind speed is still mildly elevated, it should settle down a
    Message 1 of 2 , Jan 12, 2004
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      All is relatively quiet tonight as the Earth exits a high speed solar
      wind stream While the solar wind speed is still mildly elevated, it
      should settle down a bit over the next couple of days. After that,
      another coronal hole enounter is on tap. The high speed solar wind
      gusts from that should reach us on or about the 16th. Sunspot region
      537 has been relatively quiet since its M3.2 flare on the 9th, and the
      background X-ray fluz is holding steady. However, more M-class flares
      are still a possibility from this sunspot region.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 77
      SFI : 118
      A index : 7
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 493.2 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 3.2 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.4 nPa

      IMF : 5.7 nT
      IMF Orientation : 3.0 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 537
      is remains capable of producing M-class flare activity.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
      throughout the forecast period.

      Recent significant solar flare actviity :
      None
    • David
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Conditions are becoming more active. Sunspot region 720 is growing rapidly, and has already been the source for one M-class flare
      Message 2 of 2 , Jan 12, 2005
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        ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

        Conditions are becoming more active. Sunspot region 720 is growing
        rapidly, and has already been the source for one M-class flare on the
        9th. Additionally, the solar wind speed is above the 700 km/sec mark
        as a result of the earth being inside of a coronal hole solar wind
        stream. Geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed on and off
        over the last few days, and aurora are a possibility in the higher
        latitudes. That effect should start diminishing by the 15th. Sunspot
        region 720, however, bears watching in the days ahead. It is already
        naked eye visible, and the background X-ray flux is rising, albeit
        slowly. Stay tuned to see if it continues to grow or does a region
        715-like disappearing act.

        The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

        NOAA sunspot number : 58
        SFI : 102
        A index : 24
        K index : 2

        Solar wind speed : 718.4 km/sec
        Solar wind density : 1.5 protons/cc
        Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa

        IMF : 3.8 nT
        IMF Orientation : 3.0 nT South

        GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1

        Conditions for the last 24 hours :
        Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
        reaching the G1 level occurred.

        Forecast for the next 24 hours :
        No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

        Solar activity forecast :
        Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
        activity. Region 720 is the most likely source for an M-class flare
        due to it continual growth.

        Geomagnetic activity forecast :
        The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated
        minor storm levels possible on 13 January. Quiet to active conditions
        are expected on 14 January while quiet to unsettled conditions are
        expected on 15 January as the high speed stream diminishes.

        Recent significant solar flare activity :
        09-Jan-2005 0851Z M2.4
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