Solar Activity Report for 1/10/04
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been noted during the past 24
hours, and the solar wind speed is above the 650 km/sec mark. An
aurora watch remains in effect. Coronal holes are the cause of the
high solar wind speed. The current situation is expected to last for
at least the next 48 hours, and likely longer than that. Sunspot
region 537 continues to be active, having produced back-to-back
M-class flares on the 9th. As I look now, I can see that that
background X-ray flux is rising, so I wouldn't be surprised of more
significant flares are on the way.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 66
SFI : 119
A index : 24
K index : 1
Solar wind speed : 656.1 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.6 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.0 nPa
IMF : 9.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.8 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. There is a fair
chance of an isolated major flare from either of the two remaining
spotted active regions visible on the solar disk; Regions 536 and 537.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to
active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible due to the
continued effects a favorably positioned coronal hole and the
associated high speed stream.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
09-Jan-2004 0144Z M3.2
09-Jan-2004 0122Z M1.1
08-Jan-2004 0507Z M1.3