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  • Pawnfart
    If you get a chance to look at the large scale water vapor link:
    Message 1 of 702 , Aug 6, 2001
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      If you get a chance to look at the large scale
      water vapor
      link:<br><br><a href=http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/tropical.html target=new>http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/tropical.html</a><br><br>You can see how when Barry was drawn by the low
      ashore it moved the underlying enhancement from cirrus
      with it. This moisture was in the shape of an upside
      down 'Y', with one part of the 'Y' over the western
      Carribean, and the other over the western Gulf. The 'Y' got
      tilted clockwise, and the cirrus enhancement that was
      over the western Carribean is now over the western
      Gulf, and the cirrus enhanceent over the Western Gulf
      now thunderstorms in Oklahoma. <br><br>It should be
      noted that part of the stalling and flooding that comes
      with the type of cirrus enhancement we have now is
      higher up. And at higher levels of measurement, you
      should get higher wind speeds. For instance, connected
      with Barry are buoy readings, which are taken at 10
      meters. At buoy 42039, for instance, there was of 39kts
      with a peak gust to 54 kts. The NHC uses buoy and BP
      information to forecast surface wind speeds. Here is a link
      to that
      buoy:<br><br><a href=http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?%24station=42039 target=new>http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?%24station=42039</a><br><br>Surface winds are used by everyone else--at about 1 meter
      readings are taken for these winds. For instance, Eglin
      Airforce Base was measuring winds of 63mph last night. For
      the most part, winds were much less than
      forecast--the 70 mph figure the most quoted. <br><br>Here is a
      link by a forecaster who explains perhaps why the
      surface speeds differed from what was forecast or what
      kind of <br><br>
      <a href=http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/news_index?nav=home&type=jbsbut target=new>http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/news_index?nav=home&type=jbsbut</a> <br><br>I however, would be more inclined to
      think that the issue is cirrus enhancement, where right
      now, with the lack of volcanic activity and heavy
      early spring river flow in the Gulf with the
      Mississippi subsisting 25 square miles yearly now for several
      in a row to go with upper river flooding (along with
      bonus runoff from Allison, particularly in the Florida
      region which got good rainfall for the first time really
      since 1998). There was also flaring energy in the Gulf
      and in the Carribean, and despite the dam issues in
      Venezuela and West Africa, there were warm waters there and
      some solar based cirrus activity going on. Indeed,
      while the storm could form in the dam cirrus delaying
      Carribean, when the combination of the Gulf moisture AND
      what little enhancement that occurs in the Western
      Carribean, the storm formed.<br><br>The next big wave may
      become that Alberto II I predicted in April. Let's watch
      it.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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