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Solar Activity Report for 1/7/04

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch in Effect ** Overall solar and geomagnetic activity have increased over the last 24 hours, and G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been
    Message 1 of 1 , Jan 7, 2004
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      ** Aurora Watch in Effect **

      Overall solar and geomagnetic activity have increased over the last 24
      hours, and G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed.
      Therefore, and aurora watch is in effect. Aurora were photographed
      over Fairbanks, AK on the night of the 6th, as can be seen here :
      http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/images2004/06jan04/Birdsall1.jpg
      The reason for the increased activity is two-fold. First, the solar
      wind speed remains elevated due to coronal hole effects. That is
      expected to last for about the next 48 hours. Secondly, the CME from
      the M6.9 flare on the 5th struck home earlier today. It wasn't a
      particularly strong impact, but it was enough to create the
      aforementioned geomagnetic storm conditions. While sunspot region 536
      is easily the largest one visible, it has been relatively quiet since
      the M6.9 flare. Worthy of note, however, is sunspot region 537, which
      is just now rotating into view. It fired off two very impressive
      flares today, the largest being an M-8 class event. It will certainly
      bear watching in the days ahead.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 93
      SFI : 119
      A index : 38
      K index : 1

      Solar wind speed : 611.6 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 0.9 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.5 nPa

      IMF : 5.4 nT
      IMF Orientation : 4.4 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R2
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for isolated
      major flare activity. Region 537 is expected to remain active and
      Region 536 still has the potential for producing significant flare
      activity as well.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with some minor
      storm periods for 08 January based on the continued influence of a
      high speed solar wind stream. Mostly active conditions should
      predominate on 09 January and a decline to mostly unsettled levels is
      expected on 10 January.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      07-Jan-2004 1027Z M8.3
      07-Jan-2004 0404Z M4.5
      06-Jan-2004 0629Z M5.8
      05-Jan-2004 0345Z M6.9
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