Solar Activity Report for 1/5/03
- The solar wind speed remains on the high side of 600 km/sec tonight.
While there were no geomagnetic storms observed within the last 24
hours, there is a distinct possibility of that tomorrow as the high
speed solar wind stream continues. The biggest news, however, is a
very respectable M-6 class flare unleashed by sunspot region 536 early
on the 5th. SOHO satellite imagery is inconclusive, but it is a
pretty safe bet that the event produced a CME. It was a long-duration
flare, which are more likely to produce CME's. Due to the location of
region 536, we will probably be getting at least a glancing blow from
the CME on or about the 8th. That could serve to enhance the already
unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Region 536 remains a threat for
more flares, and the high speed solar wind is expected to persist for
the next 48 hours.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 80
SFI : 123
A index : 19
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 636.3 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.3 nPa
IMF : 6.1 nT
IMF Orientation : 4.5 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Radio blackouts
reaching the R2 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 536 remains
capable of producing an M-class event.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active levels
with periods of minor storm conditions for 06-08 January. This is due
to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream.
Additionally, isolated periods of major storm conditions are possible
on 07-08 January as a result of the M6 event at 05/0345 UTC.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
05-Jan-2004 0345Z M6.9