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More on Barry landfall--speculation ends

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  • Pawnfart
    Barry Update. The most recent water vapor pictures shows continued moisture from cirrus enhancement coming from the Carribean and the western aspect of the
    Message 1 of 702 , Aug 4, 2001
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      Barry Update. The most recent water vapor
      pictures shows continued moisture from cirrus enhancement
      coming from the Carribean and the western aspect of the
      Gulf the cirrus enhancement is really flying hard
      northwest--no way does Barry get cirrus enhancement from there.
      I suspect that Barry itself is responsible for such
      a movement coming off the western Gulf, with the
      west winds on the northern part of the storm. Finally,
      it looks like there is a dry line rushing south
      across the SW and it is going to draw it NE.<br><br>The
      BP is falling, but that is only a result of the
      flaring of the day ending cirrus enhancement, such that
      its energy is from cirrus isn't really connected
      directly to the low. But with the night the energy of
      cirrus enhancement comes directly from the ocean
      movements and coupling--and the BP is dropping in an
      enviorment now w/out much dry air. <br><br>Since it is
      moving east again, it appears to have chosen the energy
      from the western part of the Carribean, so Florida
      should get some more rain out of this.<br><br>This storm
      turned out to be really good news for those in the
      drought stricken SW. As this is a flaring year, or an El
      Nino year, this is expected. However, the dams in
      Venezuela and West Africa that led to this drought are
      still doing there thing, and with no flaring events
      scheduled until winter 2002, I suspect the Floridians
      should be happy with what rain they got out of the
      Allison/Barry storms.
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1 9:47 PM
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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