Solar Activity Report for 12/11/03
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
Geomagnetic storm conditions continue as the Earth remains inside of a
high speed coronal hole solar wind stream, reaching the G-2 level
again within the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed is close to 750
km/sec, and the interplanetary magnetic field is still in a
south-pointing orientation. Aurora have been spotted in Canada and
northern Europe, and more aurora are definitely a possibility tonight.
The level of activity should gradually decline over the next few days
as the solar wind speed slows down. Two new, small sunspot regions
have rotated into view, although they don't appear to show any flare
generating potential at this time. Of interest is the fact that SOHO
imagery shows the now famous sunspot region 486, the source of the
largest solar flare ever recorded, is still holding together as it
transits the back side of the sun. It may well make it back around
for an unprecedented third appearance. However, it was actually
pretty quiet its last trip around, and there are no indications that
it has flared up again.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 35
SFI : 86
A index : 45
K index : 4
Solar wind speed : 764.5 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.8 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.6 nPa
IMF : 6.4 nT
IMF Orientation : 6.3 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G2 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
Activity in the geomagnetic field should decrease over the next few
days as the coronal hole causing this elevated activity rotates out of
geoeffective position. Active to minor storm conditions are expected
on 12-13 December, with isolated major storming possible. Unsettled to
active conditions are expected on 14 December, with isolated minor
Recent significant solar flare activity :