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Solar Activity Report for 12/11/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** Geomagnetic storm conditions continue as the Earth remains inside of a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream, reaching the G-2
    Message 1 of 1 , Dec 11, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      Geomagnetic storm conditions continue as the Earth remains inside of a
      high speed coronal hole solar wind stream, reaching the G-2 level
      again within the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed is close to 750
      km/sec, and the interplanetary magnetic field is still in a
      south-pointing orientation. Aurora have been spotted in Canada and
      northern Europe, and more aurora are definitely a possibility tonight.
      The level of activity should gradually decline over the next few days
      as the solar wind speed slows down. Two new, small sunspot regions
      have rotated into view, although they don't appear to show any flare
      generating potential at this time. Of interest is the fact that SOHO
      imagery shows the now famous sunspot region 486, the source of the
      largest solar flare ever recorded, is still holding together as it
      transits the back side of the sun. It may well make it back around
      for an unprecedented third appearance. However, it was actually
      pretty quiet its last trip around, and there are no indications that
      it has flared up again.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 35
      SFI : 86
      A index : 45
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 764.5 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.8 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.6 nPa

      IMF : 6.4 nT
      IMF Orientation : 6.3 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G2 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      Activity in the geomagnetic field should decrease over the next few
      days as the coronal hole causing this elevated activity rotates out of
      geoeffective position. Active to minor storm conditions are expected
      on 12-13 December, with isolated major storming possible. Unsettled to
      active conditions are expected on 14 December, with isolated minor
      storming possible.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
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