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How Barry could landfall slowly & fload

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  • Pawnfart
    Allison did something unusual in that is didn t have real strong winds yet there was great rainfall with it. What happened here is that a typical cirrus
    Message 1 of 702 , Aug 4, 2001
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      Allison did something unusual in that is didn't
      have real strong winds yet there was great rainfall
      with it. What happened here is that a typical cirrus
      enhancing mechanism of a tropical storm will be the winds
      of the storm moving warm salty water on the ocean
      surface, inducting a current, be it positive or negitive,
      and bands of cirrus organize and when the storm
      landfalls, flooding can occur. But with Allison, these bands
      weren't really strong enough to move any currents. Where
      the moisture came from was the built in conduction
      that occurs in the gyre in the Gulf of Mexico,
      specifically the west moving currents on the west side of the
      gyre. Allison then simply operated as a low to suck in
      all the moisture that existed over the Gulf under the
      cirrus. <br><br>For the same type of thing to happen for
      Barry, its landfall must do sort of the same thing.
      Indeed, the storm organized when the west moving gyre
      based cirrus enhancement from both the western
      Carribean and the western Gulf converged over Florida.
      <br><br>Presently, not only is there a lack of "help" from the
      gyres, but the winds north of Barry, which move WEST and
      therefore cirrus enhancing, are actually flying against the
      EAST moving current of the Gulf gyre. This is why
      moisture or convection aren't matching the low real well.
      But I noticed that this may be changing with the
      day's flaring developements and slow westward
      movements. If it landfalls much further west, and connects
      with cirrus enhancement to its south, we could indeed
      have another Allison. But, unlike Allison which
      evolved from the moisture mechinism I am describing,
      Barry form from BOTH the Carribean and Gulf gyres, and
      has moved to such a location that it no longer is
      going to get help from the Carribean (unless you are
      talking about the extra-tropical bands that are hitting
      Florida).
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
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        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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