Solar Activity Report for 12/5/03
- ** Aurora Watch In Effect **
G-2 geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed within the last 24
hours as the Earth remains inside of a high-speed coronal hole solar
wind stream. The interplanetary magnetic field has held onto a slight
but persistent south-pointing orientation, which has served to enhance
the activity. Look for the present conditions to last for the next 48
hours or so. After that, we will begin to fall under the influence of
a rather large coronal hole that is rotating into an Earth-pointing
position. While the official forecast calls for calming conditions on
the 8th, I wouldn't bet on it. Sunspot-wise, things are relatively
quiet. There are three numbered sunspot regions visible tonight, the
largest of which is sunspot region 517. At the moment, it doesn't
appear to have the potential of generating a significant flare, but
the background X-ray flux has been steadily rising. Stay tuned!
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 88
SFI : 112
A index : 35
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 541.6 km/sec
Solar wind density : 4.1 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.0 nPa
IMF : 7.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 3.2 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G2 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active
conditions. Isolated periods of minor storm levels are possible on
06-07 December. By 08 December, activity is expected to return to
quiet to unsettled conditions.The geomagnetic field is expected to be
at unsettled to active conditions.
Recent significant solar flare activity :