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Solar Activity Report for 12/2/03

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  • David
    ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** As you can see, conditions are a bit more active tonight. First of all, sunspot
    Message 1 of 1 , Dec 2, 2003
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      ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      As you can see, conditions are a bit more active tonight. First of
      all, sunspot region 508 fired off a pair of M1.4 flares. Even though
      it has rotated over the western limb of the solar disk, it still sent
      a barrage of high-energy protons our way, thus the solar radiation
      storm. There was also a very impressive CME from the first flare,
      which was a long-duration event. Due to region 508's location,
      however, the CME was not Earth-directed. What will have an effect on
      us is a small CME that has rotated into an Earth-pointing position.
      Look for the solar wind speed to start increasing on the 4th, and
      geomagnetic storm conditions will be a possibility.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 119
      SFI : 139
      A index : 8
      K index : 1

      Solar wind speed : 377.8 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 0.9 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.3 nPa

      IMF : 6.2 nT
      IMF Orientation : 0.5 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation
      storms reaching the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Solar
      radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a slight
      chance of a proton producing flare from Region 508 beyond the west limb.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
      on 03 - 04 December. On 05 December activity may increase to active
      levels due to a coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a
      geoeffective position. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began
      today is expected to end on 03 December.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      02-Dec-2003 2300Z M1.4
      02-Dec-2003 1308Z M1.4
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