Solar Activity Report for 12/2/03
- ** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
As you can see, conditions are a bit more active tonight. First of
all, sunspot region 508 fired off a pair of M1.4 flares. Even though
it has rotated over the western limb of the solar disk, it still sent
a barrage of high-energy protons our way, thus the solar radiation
storm. There was also a very impressive CME from the first flare,
which was a long-duration event. Due to region 508's location,
however, the CME was not Earth-directed. What will have an effect on
us is a small CME that has rotated into an Earth-pointing position.
Look for the solar wind speed to start increasing on the 4th, and
geomagnetic storm conditions will be a possibility.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 119
SFI : 139
A index : 8
K index : 1
Solar wind speed : 377.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 0.9 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.3 nPa
IMF : 6.2 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.5 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Solar
radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a slight
chance of a proton producing flare from Region 508 beyond the west limb.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
on 03 - 04 December. On 05 December activity may increase to active
levels due to a coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a
geoeffective position. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began
today is expected to end on 03 December.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
02-Dec-2003 2300Z M1.4
02-Dec-2003 1308Z M1.4