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The Atlantic hurricane season in review

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  • David
    Atlantic season: Seven hurricanes, 14 storms, 62 deaths MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- The 2003 Atlantic hurricane season was busier than usual, with 14 named storms
    Message 1 of 2 , Nov 30, 2003
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      Atlantic season: Seven hurricanes, 14 storms, 62 deaths

      MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- The 2003 Atlantic hurricane season was busier
      than usual, with 14 named storms blamed for 62 deaths by the season's
      end Sunday, but forecasters say it could have been worse.

      Hurricane Fabian was the strongest of the storms to hit land, raking
      Bermuda with 120 mph wind that tore up roofs and roads in early
      September. Two weeks later, Hurricane Isabel plowed into North
      Carolina's Outer Banks with 100 mph wind and became the season's
      deadliest and most damaging storm.

      "North Carolina and Virginia were not lucky this year, but the rest of
      the East Coast was," said Bill Gray, a hurricane forecaster at
      Colorado State University. "It's inevitable, I think, that we're going
      to have some major hits."

      The six-month hurricane season produced seven hurricanes, three of
      them major hurricanes with sustained wind speeds of at least 111 mph,
      putting them at Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

      Isabel reached Category 5 strength over open water, but had weakened
      to a Category 2 storm by the time it made landfall near Ocracoke
      Island, North Carolina, September 18. It was the strongest storm to
      hit the country since Hurricane Floyd in 1999 and was blamed for 40
      deaths and $2 billion in damage, much of it from flooding as it swept
      over the mid-Atlantic states.

      Fabian, which hit Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 hurricane, caused
      an estimated $300 million in damage and was blamed for eight deaths.
      The other Category 3 storm was Hurricane Kate, which never threatened
      land.

      The United States has only been hit by three of the more than 30 major
      hurricanes that have formed in the Atlantic Basin since 1995, a trend
      that has both baffled and worried forecasters.

      "This can't keep going," Gray said. "Climatology will eventually right
      itself and we're going to see more storms, but it's going to be very
      different. We're going to see hurricane damage like you've never seen it."

      It isn't clear why so many hurricanes and tropical storms have steered
      away from the United States in recent years, he said. But based on
      historical data, Gray said, he expects more to hit the country as soon
      as next year, and that could mean significant damage in coastal areas
      where the population has boomed.

      People living in the storms' paths are benefitting from earlier
      warnings now. The National Hurricane Center's issued five-day
      forecasts for the first time this year, giving two extra days of
      warning about where a storm is projected to hit.

      While the new method wasn't perfect -- Tropical Storm Bill hit
      Louisiana less than a day and a half after the first storm advisory
      was issued -- it was accurate to within 175 miles for Hurricane
      Isabel, unusually close for such a long-range forecast.

      Experts had expected the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season to be more
      active than usual, and it was, exceeding the average of 10 named
      storms and six hurricanes. The first this year, Tropical Storm Ana,
      formed more than five weeks before the season's official start.

      http://www.cnn.com/2003/WEATHER/11/30/weatherpage.am.ap/index.html
    • Mike Doran
      Overall, my predictions in APRIL were remarkably accurate and well within the limitations of a feedback loop biological analysis where the more chaotic
      Message 2 of 2 , Dec 2, 2003
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        Overall, my predictions in APRIL were remarkably accurate and well
        within the limitations of a feedback loop biological analysis where
        the more chaotic patterns from the solar input can cause modulations
        to take unpredictable forms. Some of that inability has been
        catagorized, now that the moon's role of gravity wave stirring is
        understood (this is the Little Ice Age forcing per Keeling Whorf).
        That is, if it is understood what the moon orbital pattern is
        (should be calculatable by Newtonian physics), an even more accurate
        picture can emerge, using the solar flaring cycle as a guide to that
        chaotic input. Of course, as always, the theory and the model are
        limited by my resources--I don't have the computers, data or people
        of the NHC with me, even though my long range forecasts are more
        telling.

        ++++++++++++++

        http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

        liquid_paper4 - 01:18pm Oct 23, 2003 EST (# 5254 of 5826)

        BTW, I didn't last week comment that tropical storm conditions in
        the W. Caribbean would favor a Mitch like event--such as SSTs are
        starting to really show are identical to early October 1998, but I
        made this comment in APRIL. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++

        I would be MUCH more concerned about a Caracus 1999 like storm. This
        is their "dry" season, BTW, and like in 1999 you see a pattern
        emerging and rain there. What is interesting is how the solar
        conditions were absolutely extreme for the end of October, which was
        about when the CV season should end . . . with a bang. My view is
        the timing and nature of the solar activity made tropical formation
        unlikely, and overcame the modulations by the biosphere. It's like
        asking you body to shiver when its 100 degrees out and you are hot
        and sweating.

        http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html

        SST anomalies are of interest, and compare to 12/99 in that there is
        a cold band of SSTs around Antarctica, BUT some warm SSTs along the
        tropical E. Pac.

        The ULL vort may be talking about is at 25 / 45? I haven't been
        tracking the Caribbean lately because I am much more concerned with
        some of the biology stuff that has come off lately. However, that
        said, the drought monitor continues to show very poor drought
        conditions in the non coastal SW nw to the upper Midwest, Colorado
        included. Poor Mark, dumb as a pile of rocks, sees the problem but
        cannot really analyze it for what it is—meanwhile, nothing of the
        Colorado flow into the GOC and the electrical pathway to aid the sub
        tropical jet is more resistive, lesser of a marine biosphere, and
        the north EMF continues to shrink . . .


        --- In methanehydrateclub@yahoogroups.com, "David" <b1blancer1@e...>
        wrote:
        > Atlantic season: Seven hurricanes, 14 storms, 62 deaths
        >
        > MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- The 2003 Atlantic hurricane season was
        busier
        > than usual, with 14 named storms blamed for 62 deaths by the
        season's
        > end Sunday, but forecasters say it could have been worse.
        >
        > Hurricane Fabian was the strongest of the storms to hit land,
        raking
        > Bermuda with 120 mph wind that tore up roofs and roads in early
        > September. Two weeks later, Hurricane Isabel plowed into North
        > Carolina's Outer Banks with 100 mph wind and became the season's
        > deadliest and most damaging storm.
        >
        > "North Carolina and Virginia were not lucky this year, but the
        rest of
        > the East Coast was," said Bill Gray, a hurricane forecaster at
        > Colorado State University. "It's inevitable, I think, that we're
        going
        > to have some major hits."
        >
        > The six-month hurricane season produced seven hurricanes, three of
        > them major hurricanes with sustained wind speeds of at least 111
        mph,
        > putting them at Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
        >
        > Isabel reached Category 5 strength over open water, but had
        weakened
        > to a Category 2 storm by the time it made landfall near Ocracoke
        > Island, North Carolina, September 18. It was the strongest storm to
        > hit the country since Hurricane Floyd in 1999 and was blamed for 40
        > deaths and $2 billion in damage, much of it from flooding as it
        swept
        > over the mid-Atlantic states.
        >
        > Fabian, which hit Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 hurricane,
        caused
        > an estimated $300 million in damage and was blamed for eight
        deaths.
        > The other Category 3 storm was Hurricane Kate, which never
        threatened
        > land.
        >
        > The United States has only been hit by three of the more than 30
        major
        > hurricanes that have formed in the Atlantic Basin since 1995, a
        trend
        > that has both baffled and worried forecasters.
        >
        > "This can't keep going," Gray said. "Climatology will eventually
        right
        > itself and we're going to see more storms, but it's going to be
        very
        > different. We're going to see hurricane damage like you've never
        seen it."
        >
        > It isn't clear why so many hurricanes and tropical storms have
        steered
        > away from the United States in recent years, he said. But based on
        > historical data, Gray said, he expects more to hit the country as
        soon
        > as next year, and that could mean significant damage in coastal
        areas
        > where the population has boomed.
        >
        > People living in the storms' paths are benefitting from earlier
        > warnings now. The National Hurricane Center's issued five-day
        > forecasts for the first time this year, giving two extra days of
        > warning about where a storm is projected to hit.
        >
        > While the new method wasn't perfect -- Tropical Storm Bill hit
        > Louisiana less than a day and a half after the first storm advisory
        > was issued -- it was accurate to within 175 miles for Hurricane
        > Isabel, unusually close for such a long-range forecast.
        >
        > Experts had expected the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season to be more
        > active than usual, and it was, exceeding the average of 10 named
        > storms and six hurricanes. The first this year, Tropical Storm Ana,
        > formed more than five weeks before the season's official start.
        >
        > http://www.cnn.com/2003/WEATHER/11/30/weatherpage.am.ap/index.html
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