Solar Activity Report for 11/22/03
- ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
A minor geomagnetic storm is in progress, and my suspicion is that the
CME from the M9.6 flare of the 20th has struck home, although the
solar wind data doesn't really suggest that anything significant has
happened. Oh well, time will tell. While sunspot regions 501, 507,
and 508 all look to have the potential for generating significant
flares, they've all three been quiet for the last couple of days, and
the background X-ray flux is holding steady at the present time.
Another possible cause for the current geomagnetic storm conditions is
the fact that we may now be coming into the high speed solar wind
stream from a coronal hole, although again, the solar wind data
doesn't show anything really significant. We should have a better
idea tomorrow of exactly what is doing what.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 123
SFI : 176
A index : 16
K index : 5
Solar wind speed : 573.2 km/sec
Solar wind density : 4.1 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.0 nPa
IMF : 10.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 3.8 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 501, 507,
and 508 may produce isolated major flares.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels,
with isolated minor storm conditions on 23 November due to the effects
of high speed solar wind streams associated with a coronal hole moving
into geoeffective position.
Recent significant solar flare activity :