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Solar Activity Report for 11/20/03

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  • David
    ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The CME from the cluster of M-class flares which occurred on the 18th struck home early
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 20, 2003
      ** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The CME from the cluster of M-class flares which occurred on the 18th
      struck home early today, and in a big way! In at least some
      locations, G-5 (Extreme) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed.
      The interplanetary magnetic field already had a south-pointing
      orientation from the coronal hole high speed solar wind, and when the
      CME hit, it swung sharply south, and the show was on. Aurora were
      sighted as far south as Arizona and Alabama. Numerous other locations
      saw beautiful aurora displays, as can be seen here :
      . Look for the activity to gradually die down...temporarily. Sunspot
      region 501, formerly 486, fired off a strong M9-class flare early this
      morning, and a faint but full-halo CME was sighted in the SOHO
      satellite imagery. While that CME isn't as intense as the one that is
      causing the current high levels of geomagnetic activity, it should
      cause at least G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions when it arrives
      sometime on the 22nd or 23rd. Sunspot regions 501, 507, and 508,
      while lacking the size and sheer intensity of their last trip around,
      all have the potential of producing a major flare at any time. Oh
      yeah, and we could see another round of high speed solar wind from a
      coronal hole that has rotated into an Earth-pointing position along
      about the 23rd.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 118
      SFI : 175
      A index : 103
      K index : 5

      Solar wind speed : 559.3 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 6.7 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 3.6 nPa

      IMF : 11.1 nT
      IMF Orientation : 5.5 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been severe. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G4 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R2
      level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 501, 507
      and 508 are capable of producing major flares.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active all three
      days, with major storm conditions possible early on 21 November from
      the lingering effects of the geomagnetic storm in progress. Minor
      storming is possible on 22-23 November from a CME shock arrival
      originating from the M9 flare observed earlier today.

      Recent significant solar flare actiity :
      20-Nov-2003 0747Z M9.6
      20-Nov-2003 0212Z M1.4
      19-Nov-2003 0401Z M1.7
      18-Nov-2003 1011Z M4.6
      18-Nov-2003 0831Z M3.9
      18-Nov-2003 0752Z M3.2
      18-Nov-2003 0139Z M1.8
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