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Solar Activity Report for 11/18/03

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  • David
    ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The major news today is brought to you by sunspot region 484, or 501 as it is now known. It has been quite active since it
    Message 1 of 1 , Nov 18, 2003
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      ** Aurora Watch In Effect **

      The major news today is brought to you by sunspot region 484, or 501
      as it is now known. It has been quite active since it rotated back
      into view a few days ago, and has been the source of several M-class
      flares, including a respectable M-4 shot. That flare happened on the
      17th, and hurled a nice CME into space. While it wasn't squarely
      Earth-directed, we will likely receive at least a glancing blow from
      it, which according to the predictions, will cause some minor
      geomagnetic storm conditions tomorrow. Of more interest, however, is
      the M-class flare activity from today. There was a cluster of three
      flares that came very close together. Two of them were from region
      484. That activity fired off a full-halo CME. Look for it to arrive
      day after tomorrow, and don't be surprised to see some major
      geomagnetic storm conditions. The third flare, and the largest of the
      cluster, came from sunspot region 486. It will be rotating back into
      view tomorrow. Region 488, now officially designated as sunspot
      region 507, came into view today. The next several days promise to be
      very interesting indeed.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 90
      SFI : 144
      A index : 23
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 583.0 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 1.3 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 0.8 nPa

      IMF : 3.6 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.7 nT South

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
      Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R2 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions
      501 and 507 are both capable of producing major flare activity.

      Goemagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to range between predominantly
      active to minor storm levels through much of the period. Minor storm
      conditions are expected around the middle of day one due to a glancing
      blow, from the partial halo CME that occurred as a result of the M4
      flare that was recorded at 0905Z on the 17 of Nov. Isolated major to
      severe storm conditions are expected beginning around the middle of
      day two due to a second transient that is expected as the result of
      the complex M-class activity emanating a full halo CME today. Day
      three should see a return to predominantly active conditions with
      isolated minor storm possible at this time.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      19-Nov-2003 0401Z M1.7
      18-Nov-2003 1011Z M4.6
      18-Nov-2003 0831Z M3.9
      18-Nov-2003 0752Z M3.2
      18-Nov-2003 0139Z M1.8
      17-Nov-2003 0905Z M4.2
      17-Nov-2003 0134Z M1.2
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